Summary:: There is only one question, can the second brand and the third brand really get up? (Welcome to the leveraged game).
Written by |Zhang Yinyin&Editor|Rejoice
Last week, Leveraged Games wrote about the 2023 results of Li Auto, which is also a new force in car manufacturing. Li Auto will become the first new car-making force with revenue exceeding 100 billion yuan in 2023, and make its first annual profit, making up for the losses of the past five years.
In the past, "Wei Xiaoli", Weilai ranked first, but now it is obvious that the light is covered by Li Auto, how will Weilai in 2023?
Today, the "annual report" of the new year of Leveraged Games will make a summary of 2023 for NIO. I hope that in the next month, I can provide an in-depth analysis of the 2023 performance of the company you want to see.
1. The revenue exceeded 55.6 billion yuan, but the growth was not fast, and the loss exceeded 20 billion
If you summarize NIO's 2023 in one sentence, it is the "three highs", with high revenue, loss, and R&D, and we will talk about them one by one below.
According to NIO Group's reported unaudited financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2023, NIO's revenue for the fourth quarter of 2023 reached RMB1710.3 billion yuan (24..)US$8.9 billion), with full-year 2023 revenue of 5561.8 billion yuan (78..)$33.6 billion).
In detail: 1) In the fourth quarter of 2023, NIO's auto sales were 1543.9 billion yuan (21$74.5 billion), an increase of 46%, but down 113%。It should be said that the year-on-year increase is not high, not to mention the month-on-month increase.
In the fourth quarter of 2023, NIO's automotive gross margin was 119%, compared to 110%。
In the fourth quarter of 2023, NIO's total revenue was 1710.3 billion yuan (24..)US$8.9 billion), an increase of 65%, down 10. from the third quarter of 20233%。
Gross profit for the fourth quarter of 2023 was 127.9 billion yuan (1US$80.2 billion), an increase of 1057%, down 16. from the third quarter of 20230%。
Gross margin for the fourth quarter of 2023 was 75%, compared to 39%, compared to 80%。NIO explained:
This was mainly due to a decrease in the gross margin for the provision of energy solutions due to the expansion of the energy network, which was partially offset by an increase in the gross margin of automobiles.
Net loss for the fourth quarter of 2023 was 536.8 billion yuan (7US$56 billion), down 72%, an increase of 17. from the third quarter of 20238%。
Adjusted net loss (non-GAAP) for the fourth quarter of 2023, net of share-based compensation expense, was 480.2 billion.
Yuan (6$76.3 billion), down 52%, an increase of 21. from the third quarter of 20235%。
2) Compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, it is not bad, and NIO's sales for the whole year of 2023 will be 4925.7 billion yuan (69..)US$37.7 billion), an increase of 82%——Objectively speaking, this growth rate is not high as a new car-making force.
In 2023, NIO's gross profit margin will be 95%, compared to 13 in 20227% - I should say, not very good.
For the full year of 2023, NIO's total revenue will be 5561.8 billion yuan (78..)US$33.6 billion), as introduced at the beginning of the leveraged game above, increased by 129% - this growth rate is better than the performance in the fourth quarter of 2023, and it is also a little better than the simple annual car sales growth, but objectively speaking, it is still not high.
By the way, even so, this is already the highest revenue since NIO was founded. The revenue in 2022 will be more than 49.2 billion yuan, an increase of more than 30% at that time, the highest since its inception, and this record will be broken in 2023.
In 2023, NIO's gross profit will be 305.2 billion yuan (4US$29.8 billion), down 407%。
For the full year 2023, the gross margin was 55%, compared to 104%。
Net loss in 2023 is 207200 million yuan (29US$18.3 billion), an increase of 435%。Adjusted net loss (non-GAAP) in 2023, net of share-based incentive expense, was 1835.1 billion yuan (25..)US$84.6 billion), an increase of 511%。
In 2023, NIO's net profit attributable to its parent will be -211500 million yuan, -145 in 2022600 million yuan, and the figure in 2018 was -233300 million yuan.
As of the end of 2023, NIO had a balance of cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investments and long-term term deposits of RMB57.3 billion (US$8.1 billion).
In 2023, Leveraged Games also wrote that NIO received a US$2.2 billion strategic equity investment from Abu Dhabi-based investor CYVN Investments RSC Ltd ("CYVN").
Although it has lost money temporarily, NIO can at least afford to burn in 2024.
2. R&D expenses exceeded 10 billion yuan, and sales and administrative expenses increased by 223% far outpaced revenue growth
1) In terms of operating expenses, in the fourth quarter of 2023, NIO's R&D expenses were 397.2 billion yuan (5US$59.5 billion), a decrease of 02%, an increase of 30. from the third quarter of 20237%。
Excluding share-based incentive expenses, research and development expenses (non-GAAP) were 3616.4 billion yuan (5$9.4 billion), an increase of 18%, an increase of 36 from the third quarter of 20238%。
R&D expenses increased compared to the third quarter of 2023, mainly due to the increase in design and development costs for new products and technologies and the increase in personnel costs in the R&D department.
Compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, NIO's R&D expenses remained relatively stable.
If you look at the whole year, in 2023, NIO's R&D expenses will be 1343.1 billion yuan (18US$91.8 billion), an increase from 2022.
Length 239%。
Excluding share-based incentive expenses, research and development expenses (non-GAAP) were 1191.4 billion yuan (16US$78.1 billion), an increase of 252%。
Despite the huge losses and the sales growth is not too fast, NIO is still very willing to research and development, and Leveraged Games hopes that this will bring about product strength improvement and sales growth in 2024.
2) Selling, general and administrative expenses were 397.3 billion yuan (5US$59.5 billion), an increase of 126%, an increase of 10. from the third quarter of 20231%。
Selling, general and administrative expenses (non-GAAP) after deducting share-based incentive expenses were RMB378.2 billion yuan (5$32.6 billion), an increase of 161%, an increase of 10. from the third quarter of 20234%。
As mentioned above, in the fourth quarter of 2023, NIO's revenue will only increase by 65%, which represents a higher growth rate in sales and administrative expenses.
NIO explained: i) increased personnel costs for the sales function; and (ii) increased sales and marketing activities.
For the full year 2023, NIO's selling, general and administrative expenses were 1288.5 billion yuan (18US$14.8 billion), an increase of 223%。
Selling, general and administrative expenses (non-GAAP) excluding share-based incentive expense were 12116.7 billion yuan (17.7 billionUS$6.6 billion), an increase of 25 percent over the previous year8%。
As written above, NIO's total revenue in 2023 will be 5561.8 billion yuan (78..)US$33.6 billion), an increase of 129% - In this way, whether it is the fourth quarter of 2023 or the whole year, the growth rate of sales and administrative costs is higher than the growth rate of revenue, to be precise, much higher than the growth rate of revenue.
3. Hope for a turnaround in Alps?
Finally, let's talk about NIO's sales volume. In fact, to make money, you need to boost sales in order to dilute costs. Of course, NIO may be a little different, that is, it builds its own battery swap infrastructure.
Since 2023, NIO has started battery swap cooperation with Changan, Geely, JAC, Chery and other car companies, and cooperated with state-owned assets such as Anhui Energy Group and China Southern Power Grid Energy Storage in the energy industry.
Let's not talk about that, back to sales. In the fourth quarter of 2023, NIO delivered 50,045 vehicles, and for the full year of 2023, it delivered 160,038 vehicles.
Deliveries in 2022 totaled 122,486 units, up 30% year-on-year compared to 2022Around 7%. It is worth mentioning that according to the data of the Passenger Association, the cumulative sales of new energy passenger cars in the narrow sense in 2023 will be 77400,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 363%。In other words, NIO's sales growth seems to be okay, but it actually underperforms**.
Of course, as a pure electric car, NIO's sales are still higher than those of its peers.
In terms of months, in 2023, except for the sales volume of more than 20,000 units in July, NIO will only have more than 10,000 units in most other months, and it has still not been able to get rid of the title of "10,000 NIO".
In the first two months of 2023, due to the Spring Festival holiday and other factors, NIO delivered 10,055 vehicles in January and 8,132 vehicles in February. It is not denied that other car companies also have more or less the impact of the Spring Festival.
Li Bin said that he believes that the sales will get better and better from March, and he is confident that the monthly sales will reach 20,000 units, and he is very optimistic about the sales of this year.
However, similar words, Li Bin has said before, and the industry competition is getting bigger and bigger.
Charts**|Passenger Federation (thanks to you).
In general, NIO's cars are basically more than 300,000 yuan. NIO also thought about the second growth curve.
NIO's second brand, Alps, will be launched in the second quarter of 2023. As the only car company among the new forces to develop a sub-brand, the Alps brand is aimed at the mainstream market of 200,000-300,000 yuan, and the first product is benchmarked against Tesla's Model Y, which will be released in the third quarter and delivered in the fourth quarter.
It is said that the brand will adopt a separate sales network and part of NIO's after-sales system, and share a battery swap network with NIO.
In addition, NIO's third brand, Firefly, is scheduled to be launched in 2025, and Li Bin said that the brand is mainly aimed at a market of more than 100,000 yuan.
It can be seen that the development of the sinking market is the strategic layout of NIO.
If Li Bin and Weilai brag, the leverage game will not be quoted much, and there is only one question, can the second and third brands really get up? Good luck to NIO.
The financial charts not attributed in this article are all from NIO's relevant announcements, and are hereby explained and acknowledged