Although Vanke's sales fell by 41% year-on-year65%, but the overall decline of the top 100 real estate companies in the same period was 51Compared to the 6% results, the performance is quite satisfactory.
Author |Liu Yajie
Edit |Guan Dongsheng
In the past two days, the confidence of the secondary market in the real estate sector has begun to waver, which is not difficult to find clues from the ups and downs of Vanke A.
On March 1, the Shenzhen Component Index was upward as a whole, as of ***112%；During the same period, Vanke A's share price increased from 9 at the opening99 yuan all the way**, and finally 989 yuan, down 149% ended; Many people believe that this is just the result of a stage of rotation adjustment of various sections, how to expect the opening of Monday (March 4), 9The share price of 7 yuan continued to slide by 192% and 9 on the same dayThe ** price of 43 yuan, a decrease of 465%。
On March 5, Vanke A's share price stabilized and rebounded, 948 yuan**price**053%, but in terms of bond market performance, "20000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 Do you also want to experience the baptism of thunder?
One |Tragic deduction
The crisis of confidence stems from a tragic deduction.
At the end of February, there were rumors of "small composition" that Vanke was negotiating with some lending institutions, mainly insurance companies, for the extension of non-standard debts. Originally scheduled to expire in December 2023, the senior management team was extended by three months to March 2024, and as the expiration date approached, the senior management team traveled to Beijing to meet with the heads of the relevant institutions.
What to talk about, how to talk about it, what to do next......No one knows the specific information, but this can't stop the unlimited reverie of the outside world:
In December 2023, Banyan Tree Holdings announced on the Singapore Exchange that two of its subsidiaries, Banyan Tree Services and Banyan Tree China, had signed an agreement with two subsidiaries of Vanke, Tritonia Company and China Voyage, to acquire the stakes of Vanke A's subsidiaries in a number of companies in China, ** of 4800 million yuan.
At that time, there were already many opinions that Vanke A's move was intended to replenish the already not abundant liquidity, and bearish sentiment ensued. Judging from the performance of the A** field, the share price of Vanke A in December increased from 1144 yuan (December 1) down to 1046 yuan (December 29), a decrease of 857%, further confirming the relevant speculation.
On February 9, Vanke ended with 23RMB8.4 billion**, 50% of the equity interest in Shanghai Qibao Vanke Plaza will be transferred to Link Real Estate**, which will become the sole owner of the target. It is worth mentioning that the market valuation believes that the value of the target is about 70600 million yuan, and the final agreement price is 5.2 billion yuan. In other words, Vanke is offering a sizable discount to Link Properties**.
Selling off hotel stakes, dealing with business assets, and now talking to creditors about debt. According to this logic, we can draw a very pessimistic conclusion: Vanke is in danger and may cause irreversible results, and related parties are also difficult to preserve, so it has caused the current capital market.
In response to these views, on March 3, Xinhua Asset Management Co., Ltd. immediately issued a public statement saying that it had recently paid attention to false information about it and Vanke. Officials affirmed Vanke's position in the industry and its confidence in the healthy development of the real estate market, so it firmly believes that there will be no risks.
On March 5, Vanke's management also announced that the upcoming maturity of the US dollar bond VNKRLE 535 03 11 24 (xs1917548247) All funds have been put in place, and the debt repayment work is being arranged in an orderly manner, making every effort to calm the unease of all parties. It's just that judging from the results of the double kill of stocks and bonds, there is still a lot of work to be promoted.
II |What is the truth?
Objectively speaking, investors are worried about Vanke's solvency, and Vanke's verbal denial is obviously half the effort. To dispel the doubts of all parties, the most effective way is to come up with sufficient cash and pay off the agreed debts on time, so does Vanke have the ability?
Let's take a look at the general ledger first: public data shows that Vanke currently has 6 outstanding US dollar bonds, with a balance of 29$5.3 billion, of which the balance is 6$300 million "Vanke 535 2024-03-11" is about to expire;There are as many as 32 domestic bonds, with a scale of 5460.9 billion yuan, of which 12 billion yuan will mature within one year, including "21 million MTN002" and "21 million MTN003" will expire within this year. In this way, it is not unfounded to suspect that Vanke is under certain cash flow pressure.
However, the assumption is based on the assumption that Vanke's existing funds are insufficient to cover all of its maturing debts, which is of course not the case. Summarizing the financial report data from the first quarter of 2022 to the third quarter of 2023, it is not difficult to find that Vanke has always maintained absolute abundant cash flow during the deep adjustment stage of the real estate industry. Even in the third quarter of 2023 1036The fund of 9.5 billion yuan has become a stage low, and it can also achieve 22x coverage for short-term debt. In this way, the belief that "Vanke will fall on the road to repaying short-term debts" cannot be supported by sufficient data.
From book data to operating data, Vanke's risks are also controllable. According to the statistics released by CRIC, in the first two months of 2024, the company achieved full-caliber sales of 334500 million yuan, the sales scale is second only to Poly Development (35.9 billion yuan) in the industry. Although the year-on-year decrease was 4165%, but the overall decline of the top 100 real estate companies in the same period was 51Compared to the 6% results, the performance is quite satisfactory.
It is already very rare for Vanke to be in such a relatively stable state, even if it is extended to a long-term perspective. Summarizing the financial report data from the first quarter of 2022 to the third quarter of 2023, although the scale of revenue and non-net profit have declined to varying degrees, they are basically stable.
Looking at the asset value, Vanke's key logistics projects also provide some support for its resistance to risks. On March 1, the REIT consisting of three logistics parks of Vanke's Wanwei Logistics planned to raise 115.9 billion, which was accepted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and some institutions gave it a comprehensive assessment value-added rate of 3967%。Over time, the value of such assets may be gradually released.
Because of this, Vanke's performance has been relatively stable during the overall adjustment stage of the industry, and its performance has given shareholders full confidence.
At present, the outstanding shares hold 27Xin Jie, the chairman of Shenzhen Metro, who is the 2% major shareholder, is also the vice chairman of the board of directors of Vanke, which to a certain extent reflects the firm optimism and support of the major state-owned shareholders for Vanke, which is conducive to the continued in-depth cooperation between Vanke and Shenzhen Metro at the business level.
Shenzhen Metro Group adheres to the long-term principle, will hold Vanke's equity for a long time, and is unswervingly optimistic about Vanke's long-term development prospects. With Xin Jie's affirmation, coupled with the gradual recovery of the real estate industry on the right track, it can also be seen that Vanke's current crisis should be a high probability event.
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