Boutique long essay creation season
First, the insurance industry has a bright future
In the past few days, there have been crazy rumors on the Internet that a man is out of business, a man married a girl in Shanghai Yizhiz, the woman and her grandmother depended on each other, and got a set of 3.5 million resettlement houses and 1 million cash due to the demolition of the old house. After the man married him, he sold the house in a different way, and 4.5 million yuan was squandered by him.
In fact, there are many such cases, involving two issues: wealth inheritance and marital risk. Now they are all only children, and the divorce rate is high. Many middle-class people have nothing in an instant because of the inheritance of wealth and the risk of their own or children's marriage.
I have a friend who has hoarded more than a dozen universal insurance policies with a minimum interest rate of 3% (and even a minimum interest rate of 3.).5% of the product), start renting out the account to make money. For example, I have 1 million, put it in his account for 30 days, calculate the interest according to 3%, and the extra interest is his income.
What is involved here is the function of locking the insurance interest rate, and then the interest rate will be reduced to 1%, or even 05% of the time, looking back today can guarantee 3% of the products for a lifetime, it will be very happy.
The essence of insurance is business risk, disease risk, interest rate risk, marital risk, property risk, etc., and there is a need to hedge risk, there is the value of insurance. With the advent of low-to-medium economic growth and the aging of the population, the demand for insurance will continue to rise, and the demand for insurance will increase, which is a long-term trend.
Second, the difficulties in the insurance industry are extremely severe
The insurance industry is a special industry, not only the difficulties of product sales, but also the challenges of asset investment, as well as the cumbersome internal management of sales channels and corporate strategies.
Many people think that the rapid growth of the industry is good, but it is not. The high-speed growth of the industry, often is extensive growth, the main body of the competition to put the market size in the first place, the first war is unavoidable, resulting in each enterprise can not make a lot of money, the company's products are rough, customer opinions are also great.
Typical industries such as air conditioning, liquor, coal, cement, etc., almost all industries began to make a lot of money after the industry competition pattern stabilized.
From 2016 to the present, the insurance industry has experienced the model of Internet insurance, the first war is extremely fierce, the product service and compliance are very poor, and it has experienced the stage of small and medium-sized insurance companies fighting the first war, resulting in more than half of the small and medium-sized insurance companies are now difficult to make profits, and even unable to continue to operate normally.
On the sales side, the crowd tactics of the year are no longer possible, and the demand for high-quality insurance services from customers has increased greatly, which is typical of the insurance + pension model represented by Taikang, which calls on the insurance industry to change channels and products.
Therefore, Ping An's life insurance reform is not to find trouble, but to find the problem a long time ago, take advantage of the trend, and there is a little bit of forced meaning in it. Other insurance companies have followed suit individually, most of them still rely on their habits and comfort zones in the past, and now they have paid a painful price: channel collapse, product sales and losses.
The development law of the industry, the company's strategy, the needs of customers, and the cycle of the market will affect the final operation of an insurance company.
The size of the industry and the growth rate of the industry are, of course, an important external environment, but do not determine the profitability of the enterprise, and the competitiveness of the product and the industry competition pattern are more important.
3. Opportunities and challenges for Ping An
If you don't agree that buying insurance is buying safety, then you must at least agree that buying insurance** is buying safety.
Not to mention anything else, domestic insurance companies reallyHave ideas, dare to work hardI think it's Ping An, AIA, Taikang, and PICC.
Ping An's biggest benefit is the extreme deterioration of the industry ecology, and even formed a certain degree of systemic risk.
Small and medium-sized insurance companies can no longer grab the market by virtue of the best war, and in the case of comparable product cost performance, Ping An's brand value and channel value are too great.
Since the product is almost the same, of course you should buy insurance and buy peace, isn't it?
In terms of product competitiveness, Ping An's comprehensive finance, insurance + health management, insurance + pension, insurance + medical model is still very strong, such as insurance + pension model, Ping An focuses on ultra-high-end pension community, the only one in the country, and home care, which is also the only one that has been widely rolled out across the country.
The integrated financial model provides strong service stickiness and drainage value, such as Shenzhen's policy, which has many value-added benefits, such as traditional Chinese medicine massage, teeth cleaning and other services, which can be done in the physical examination center, and will also bring a part of the passenger flow.
In terms of investment, which everyone is most concerned about, I will focus on it. At present, the investment scale of Ping An Insurance is 46 trillion, fixed income is about 70%, of which long-term debt accounts for about 50%, equity is 12% to 13%, the high point has decreased, the company's investment is mainly stable.
In the real estate industry, Ping An's equity investment has basically been cleared, Country Garden has also been cleared, and now there is still a small amount of debt, the risk exposure is very small, and the rental properties held are very high-quality.
In terms of property insurance, the loss of guarantee insurance in the past two years is large, and it is expected to be cleared in the fourth quarter of 23.
In terms of debt investment, Ping An mainly holds treasury bonds, and the purchase of treasury bonds is tax-free, so under other conditions, the higher the coupon rate and the more income tax exemption can be obtained, the lower the nominal rate of return required by investors (i.e., the transaction yield).
After considering the tax exemption effect, the quick calculation formula used to calculate the real yield of treasury bonds is as follows: real rate of return = nominal rate of return + coupon rate * income tax rate of 25% (1 - income tax rate of 25%). For example, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond is close to 27%, because the national debt is tax-free, and before tax it is 36%。
This is an advantage for the investment side of the insurance industry. Specific to Ping An, the traditional Ping An of China is mainly health insurance, with a relatively small interest rate spread and a weaker sensitivity to interest rates than its peers.
Many people are worried that the predetermined interest rate of the products sold in the past is high, which has formed a huge historical pressure on the company, in fact, they do not understand the business model of insurance, the predetermined interest rate in the past is high, and the premiums received are liabilities, but the yield of treasury bonds in the past is also high, and the premiums invested are assets, and it would be good if assets and liabilities matched.
Ping An's assets and liabilities match the duration of the ** memory should be about 4 years, which is the best among listed companies.
The current Treasury yields have indeed fallen a lot, but the scheduled rate has long since fallen from 4025% has been reduced to 3%, after the integration of newspapers and banks, the actual interest rate will be lower, in fact, today is the last day of the rectification of most channels,After today, the price of insurance products is going to rise again.
The industry always has to exist, and now the giant wheel of the industry is indeed declining, many small and medium-sized insurance companies have been submerged, listed companies are still above the level, and Ping An is at the highest level, which is very safe. If the boat is lowered a little more, and the water has not yet reached the heel of Ping An, a large number of insurance companies have been drowned, and the regulators will find a way.
That's why I say to buy insurance**, that is, to buy Ping An of China, the CSI A50 Index that is about to be issued, the bank has only one constituent stock, that is, China Merchants Bank, and the insurance has only one constituent stock, that is, Ping An of China.
Fourth, the confidence of bullish on Ping An of China?
The big logic is that in the two markets of China and the United States, 70% of the high-dividend industry is blue-chip, 30% of the technology track stocks, and the * and ** dual investment tools are built to build a dumbbell-shaped asset structure, and the dividend and growth are balanced.
The insurance industry is expected to grow weakly in the next few years, so do investors who hold Ping An feel painful? I was also in pain.
Ping An's 23-year dividends will not be less, and the annual report is estimated to be dividends + repurchases, and the dividend yield is about 5Around 7%. Tencent is also after the annual report, dividends + repurchase. China Merchants Bank is a dividend, with a dividend yield of about 5About 5%.
The dividend yield of the Agricultural Bank of China is only 531%, ROE is expected to be only 11Less than 5%.
Of course I hope the wind blows to me, and if it doesn't, I'll keep holding it.
I found that many people who do ** have problems thinking, and it is not too much to call it NC, and there are two most common ones.
One is to only look at the rate of return, opening and closing the mouth is financial freedom, ten times in ten years, my brain is about to explode, you must know that from the statistical data, the vast majority of people are losing money, and there are very few long-term continuous profits.
People, why don't you admit that you are ordinary people? I couldn't figure this out.
I look down on insurance, I look down on the index**, I look down on this, I look down on that, I can't help but outperform inflation, and I'm also drunk.
One is diode thinking, which is black and white. I write an article and say that I am bearish when I say negatives, and when I say positives, I say that I am bullish. I agree with him, that is, my own people, blow up. If you don't have the same point of view, you are the enemy, and you will be scolded.
As everyone knows, a bull who does not look at the bearish factor is not a firm bull, and may become a light position at any time, and vice versa. A sophisticated investor must look at both the positive and negative sides, and comprehensively measure the size of the risk and the expected value.
In a sense, a person who is long should look at negative information, assess the size of the risk, and formulate countermeasures in a timely manner.
Many things are two-sided, organic in crisis, such as the integration of the insurance industry, many bank sales staff (bancassurance channels) are basically not commissioned, most of the commissions are given to the bank, they live on the small account of the insurance company, and now the small account is directly gone, and the commission is reduced by a large proportion, so some bank outlets of the bancassurance channel sales staff directly resigned, and some insurance companies that regard the bancassurance channel as a key channel The premium cliff **, know which listed company I am talking about.
In the insurance brokerage channel, some small and medium-sized insurance companies are eager to control costs, and the original 8% commission ratio is directly reduced to 15%, reduce the commission ratio of 30% directly to 12%, and do not give insurance salespeople a way to live, do you think that a large number of insurance brokers are going to fall off? Can their products be sold at this commission rate?
Note: The commission rate is different for different products and different payment periods, such as accident insurance, the total premium is 100 yuan, and the 30% commission ratio is 30 yuan.
In this way, it is a great negative for the industry, but it is a great benefit for Ping An of China, it is mainly a first-class channel, its bancassurance channel has no small account, and its products do not need to adjust interest rates, so it can be said that the advantage is in full swing.
Today is the last day of the end of February, and it is also a key time point for the integration of newspapers and banks, from 0:00 on March 1, the insurance rate will be greatly adjusted, the actual rate of return of insurance will be greatly adjusted, and the price of critical illness insurance will also rise sharply, which will be the real test of the insurance industry.
In the era of dividend insurance, Ping An's brand value is even more competitive.
In the 2024 interim report, Ping An's comparative advantages will be fully demonstrated in the comparison of the same industry.
As for the share price, it's not something I can judge.