(Data**: Zhuochuang Information).
1. Corn market
First, **dynamics
On March 5, the national average price of corn was 233368 yuan ton, compared with 4 days **399 yuan ton. Compared with the previous month, corn ***254%, but compared with the same period last year, the decline reached 1636%。In the ** market, the main contract price of continuous corn is 2444 yuan ton, compared with 4 yuan ton on the 4th.
Second, market dynamics
At present, the grain supply in Northeast China is sufficient, but downstream feed companies are relatively cautious when signing orders, resulting in a slight slowdown in corn purchase and sales activities.
3. Analysis of key factors
* Situation: In the short term, the intention of selling grain at the grassroots level has been loosened, and the first merchant has adopted the strategy of collecting and leaving, and the shipment is positive, which has increased the effective quantity.
Demand status: Downstream deep processing enterprises mainly purchase according to actual demand, and feed companies are rolling to replenish the warehouse. Some enterprises are implementing pre-contracts, but on the whole, the intention to build a library is not high.
Other factors: The recent rise in temperature may have an impact on the grassroots grain sales intention in the main producing areas of Northeast China and North China, which deserves close attention from the market.
Fourth, the future trend prediction
With the gradual reduction of surplus grain at the grassroots level in Northeast China, the enthusiasm of the business to build a warehouse has increased, which will provide support for corn. Downstream enterprises continue to maintain the strategy of on-demand procurement, while the shipment intention of ** merchants is not strong. In the short term, Northeast corn** is expected to remain stable.
In North China, the arrival of corn by deep processing enterprises has declined significantly. With the downward adjustment of the first grade, grassroots farmers began to be slightly reluctant to sell, and the shipping intention of the first merchant also declined, resulting in a decrease in the effective amount. Therefore, North China corn** may remain stable in the short term.
At present, it is difficult to find good boosting factors at the breeding end, and the enthusiasm of feed enterprises in the sales area is not high, which makes it difficult for the feed demand of corn to grow significantly. The pace of transactions in the southern market is not fast, and it is expected that the corn in the southern region will maintain a stable wait-and-see posture in the short term.
Second, the wheat market
1. Changes in average prices
On March 5, the average price of domestic wheat remained at 2,79955 yuan ton, compared with the previous trading day, a small **013%。Despite the month-on-month increase of **178%, but compared to the same period last year, ** by 989%。
2. Downstream market observation
Yesterday, flour** continued to show some downward adjustments. Due to the scarcity of new orders, some companies are facing sales pressure. Some manufacturers are considering reducing operating rates in response to market pressures, and the current mentality of enterprises is generally cautious. In terms of flour**, some ** products may be lowered, while lower-priced products are likely to remain stable.
3. Fundamental analysis of wheat market
Yesterday, the wheat market** continued to show a steady and declining trend. The supply of stale grain is sufficient, and flour companies maintain a cautious attitude when purchasing. At present, the low-price arrival of bulk grains in the market is not ideal, but the emergence of bran may slightly ease the loss pressure of manufacturers.
Fourth, the future market**
Considering the current market supply and demand situation, it is expected that the wheat market may not be very large in the short term. Although the purchasing attitude of flour enterprises is cautious, and the arrival of bulk grains at low prices in the market is average, the bran may bring some support to the wheat market.
In summary, the wheat market** is expected to remain stable in the short term and may fluctuate slightly. Market participants should pay close attention to market dynamics in order to adjust their strategies in a timely manner.
3. Rice market
Recently, the cost of rice to the factory in some rice mills in Jiangsu has continued to rise, so the ex-factory price of rice has also risen accordingly. Due to the small surplus grain of grassroots farmers, some farmers' expectations for rice have gradually increased, resulting in rice mills still having difficulty purchasing rice when the price is low. Jiangsu rice has also attracted more attention from some rice mills in Shandong, Jiangsu and other places to the round grain rice in Heilongjiang region, and at the same time, the wholesale market has also increased the willingness of merchants to purchase round grain rice in Northeast China. As a result, it is expected that the procurement activities of round grain rice in Heilongjiang will increase. If the enthusiasm of grassroots farmers to sell grain does not improve, the low-end round grain rice in Heilongjiang production area may be small, while the high-end rice may remain stable.
The rice market in the south** remained generally stable. After the Lantern Festival, the purchase and sales activity of the rice market gradually increased, and rice processing enterprises began to resume work and production, and the operating rate increased. The pre-holiday inventory of some main bodies is low, and the demand for post-holiday replenishment increases, so the enthusiasm for procurement increases. Entering March, the spring plowing of early rice in the south will begin one after another, and the early rice producing areas have begun to raise seedlings. The increase of the minimum purchase price of early rice is of great significance for stimulating planting enthusiasm and stabilizing farmers' income. At present, the market purchase and sales are stable, but due to the difference in quality and demand between regions, ** fluctuates slightly.
Recently, glutinous rice in the production area has remained stable. Although there is still a certain amount of glutinous rice surplus grain at the grassroots level and intermediate links in the producing areas, which is relatively relaxed, due to the reluctance of some farmers and intermediate link merchants to sell rice at low prices, rice mills are still facing cost pressure on the purchase. The purchasing power of the terminal market is average, the digestion rate of glutinous rice in the wholesale market is slow, and the willingness of the producing area to buy is limited. In the short term, the relationship between supply and demand is deadlocked, and glutinous rice** is expected to remain stable, but individual rice mills may adopt a small profit concession strategy to boost sales due to insufficient orders.
Fourth, the soybean market
Last Friday, the average price in the national soybean producing area market was 5,04328 yuan ton, which remained stable with the previous working day's **. Judging from the performance of the major producing areas, the purchase and sales activities in the northeast and southern producing areas are relatively flat. The sales area market mainly adopts the strategy of on-demand procurement, and the overall speed of goods is not fast.
In the northeast producing areas, the purchase and sales activities are relatively stable, and the farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices, but the willingness of the first merchants to buy is not strong. It is expected that with the increase in the number of acquirers, the market situation may change. Although the speed of loading goods at the grassroots level in the southern producing areas is not fast, the surplus goods at the grassroots level are still sufficient. Demand side: With the end of phased centralized procurement activities in various regions, the market needs time to digest. At the same time, due to the low level of substitutes such as pork, eggs, and vegetables, it has a certain inhibitory effect on the consumption of soy products. As a result, the market's sustainability is likely to weaken. News: The relatively low level of CBOT soybeans ** has reduced the cost of forward arrival, which has put pressure on the mentality of the domestic spot market.
At present, the market is in a stage of relative stalemate between supply and demand. Market participants in all sectors are more cautious. The slow pace of loading at the grassroots level and the flatness of demand will continue to be the main features of the market. As a result, the spot market is expected to remain stable.