【Corn Market】
It is estimated that the new amount of corn in 2023 24 will be 305.84 million tons, an increase of 3 percent year-on-year4%] In March, it is estimated that China's corn imports in 2023 24 will be 17 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.71 million tons, which is the same as the previous month's ** value. It is estimated that the new amount of corn in 2023 24 will be 305.84 million tons, an increase of 9.93 million tons year-on-year, an increase of 34%, the same as the previous month's ** value.
It is estimated that China's total corn consumption in 2023 24 will be 295.17 million tons, an increase of 1 year-on-year7%] In March, it is expected that the corn feed consumption in 2023 24 will be 197 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons year-on-year, and the same as the ** value of the previous month. It is estimated that the industrial consumption of corn in 2023 24 will be 78 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons year-on-year, and an increase of 2 million tons from the previous month's **value. In March, it is estimated that China's total corn consumption in 2023 24 will be 295.17 million tons, an increase of 5 million tons year-on-year, an increase of 17%, an increase of 2 million tons from the previous month's ** value.
On March 5, the ex-factory price of corn starch in Northeast China was 2920 3080 yuan tons, flat week-on-week; The ex-factory price in Hebei and Shandong was 3150 3200 yuan tons, down 10 20 yuan tons week-on-week; Shanghai and Guangdong sales of **3250 3300 yuan tons, week-on-week basically flat.
The trend of raw grain affects the starch in the producing area**] Affected by policy factors in Northeast China, the trend of raw grain is strong, supporting corn starch**; In North China, the pressure on the grassroots level increased, the trend of raw grain was weak, and the center of gravity of corn starch moved down slightly. According to the deep processing enterprises, the operating rate of starch enterprises in North China has been high recently, and there is downward pressure on starch, but the starch sugar and papermaking enterprises in the sales area have increased, and the pace of procurement and replenishment has accelerated, restricting the decline of starch.
By-products**continue**Starch theoretical processing profits rise and fall with each other] This week, starch by-products **continued**, the ex-factory price of protein powder was 4380 4720 yuan tons, and the week-on-week ratio was **120 400 yuan tons; The ex-factory price of corn fiber is 940 1100 yuan ton, 70 180 yuan per week; The ex-factory price of corn germ meal was 1420 1600 yuan tons, and the week-on-week ratio was 20 90 yuan tons. On March 5, the theoretical profit of processing 1 ton of corn in Changchun, Jilin Province was 55 yuan (excluding depreciation, the same below), a decrease of 12 yuan from last week; The theoretical profit in Binzhou, Shandong Province was 50 yuan, an increase of 59 yuan from last week.
U.S. Corn *** On March 5, Chicago ** Exchange (CBOT) corn *** of which March futures closed 4 cents lower at 4135 cents bushels; May futures closed 375 cents at 4265 cents bushels; December futures closed 375 cents at 45925 cents bushel. Because of the fierce competition for exports, there is less bargain buying.
Conab: Brazil's second corn planting is 74% complete] Brazil's second corn planting was 74% complete as of March 3, up from 59% a week ago and up from 63 last year, according to Brazil's National Commodities ** company (CONAB).6%。Among them, Matogro led the way in sowing progress at 929% compared to 77 last week4%, compared to 92 in the same period last year3%；66% sown in Paraná, 55% last week and 27% in the same period last year; 58% sown in Mato Grosso do Sul, 40% last week and 28% in the same period last year.
*China is said to have purchased at least 650,000 tons of Ukrainian corn] On March 5, European ** businessmen said that China would purchase at least 650,000 tonnes of Ukrainian-made corn at $236 CNF**, including the April shipping schedule, the merchant added that the Ukrainian corn ordered by China will be shipped through the Red Sea.
【Rice Market】
It is estimated that China's rice balance in 2023 24 will be 5.39 million tons] In March, it is estimated that the total domestic rice consumption in 2023 24 will be 202.21 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.71 million tons, or 08%。Among them, the diversification of residents' staple food consumption, per capita consumption of traditional staple food is on a downward trend, combined with the population decline and aging trend continues to intensify, the national rice consumption will decline, and the edible consumption is expected to be 158 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1 million tons, a decrease of 06%；The consumption of paddy for feed, planting and industrial use was 44.21 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 710,000 tons, a decrease of 16%。The national paddy balance was 5.39 million tons, a decrease of 1.51 million tons over the previous season.
In order to effectively protect farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain and ensure the smooth sales of farmers' surplus grain, the deadline for the implementation of the minimum purchase price plan for mid-to-late rice in Heilongjiang Province in 2023 has been extended to March 31, 2024. At present, Heilongjiang grassroots rice surplus grain 3 4 percent, an increase of 1 2 percent year-on-year, despite the occurrence of 1 2 days of short-term snowfall, but the weather warming trend is obvious, rice storage difficulty increases, farmers are reluctant to sell sentiment weakened, is expected to reach the peak period of grain sales in mid-March.
Due to the increase in the market volume of raw grain in the Northeast rice market and the limited terminal demand, the market supply and demand are loose, and the processing enterprises and merchants are more on demand and the overall purchase and sales are stable. Under the increasing supply pressure, round-grain japonica rice is stable and weak, while long-grain japonica rice is relatively stable according to quality and price.
On March 5, the purchase price of round-grain japonica rice in Heilongjiang Jixi rice processing enterprises was 2,700 yuan, the ex-factory price of round-grain japonica rice was 3,700 yuan, the purchase price of long-grain japonica rice was 3,400 yuan, and the ex-factory price of long-grain japonica rice was 4,750 yuan, which was flat week-on-week. The purchase price of super rice in Jilin Dehui rice processing enterprises was 3,240 yuan ton, and the ex-factory price of super rice was 4,380 yuan, which was flat week-on-week.
Rice** pushed Philippine inflation to 3 in February4%] Philippine inflation rose to 3 in February due to rising food** and utility costs, data released by the Philippine Statistics Agency on March 5 showed4%, up from 28%, but down from 86%。* said that domestic rice ** continued to accelerate **, in February **237%, and the overall food inflation rate has increased from 35% to 46%, and the shipping cost also increased from -03% to 12%。Inflation in February 2024 remained within the 2% 4% target set by **, the first time inflation has risen after four consecutive months of decline.
Vietnam actively promotes the development of trading platforms for agricultural products such as rice, and the listing of new rice ** falls] Vietnam** decided to study and promote the development of trading platforms for agricultural products, including rice, to ensure the transparency of transactions, and will also support enterprises to effectively establish a rice ** chain and provide logistics services for the export of agricultural products to foreign markets. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development of Viet Nam, the global demand for rice remains high due to the El Niño phenomenon and armed conflict. However, after the new rice is put on the market, the rice ** falls, buyers mostly hold a wait-and-see mentality, and farmers are reluctant to sell at a high price, which may lead to the loss of export opportunities for enterprises and affect farmers' income. Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia will harvest rice in March-May.
【Wheat Market】
On March 5, ordinary wheat (national standard second class, the same below) in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province entered the factory at 2,800 yuan ton, Handan 2,790 yuan ton; Shandong Dezhou 2790 yuan ton; 2,830 yuan ton in Xinxiang, 2,830 yuan, 2,810 yuan, 2,810 yuan, 2,810 yuan, 2,830 yuan, 2,830 yuan, 2,830 yuan, 2,830 yuan, 2,830 yuan, 2,830 yuan, Suzhou 2810 yuan ton, the same as the previous day. Hebei Hengshui 2770 yuan ton; Shandong Jinan 2770 yuan ton, Heze 2820 yuan ton; 2,800 yuan ton in Xuzhou, Jiangsu, 10 20 yuan ton compared with the previous day.
First, since March, a large number of wheat reserves at all levels have been rotated out, and the current turnover rate is relatively high, which has effectively supplemented the raw grain inventory of flour enterprises. Second, under the recent downward trend of wheat, the main body of grain holding is generally cautious, and the current shipment enthusiasm is high. Third, flour consumption has entered the off-season, flour dealers are cautious, purchase on demand, and flour enterprises are not willing to build warehouses.
It is estimated that the new wheat volume in 2023 24 will be 145.89 million tons] According to the grain output data announcement of the National Bureau of Statistics, China's total wheat output in 2023 will be 136.59 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11330,000 tons, a decrease of 08%；With the continuous improvement of economic development and people's living standards, the market demand for high-quality wheat continues to increase, and the National Grain and Oil Information Center estimated in March that China's wheat imports in 2023 24 will be 9.3 million tons, down 26 percent from the record import volume of the previous year9%, but still at an all-time high. It is estimated that the new amount of wheat in the country in 2023 24 will be 145.89 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 45630,000 tons.
It is estimated that China's wheat supply and demand balance in 2023 24 will be 9.77 million tons] In March, it is expected that the total domestic wheat consumption in 2023 24 will be 136.1 million tons, an increase of 8.35 million tons year-on-year, an increase of 65%。Among them, edible consumption was 92 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8 million tons, a decrease of 19%；The consumption of feed, seed and industrial use was 44.1 million tons, an increase of 10.15 million tons year-on-year, an increase of 30%. The national wheat supply and demand balance was 9.77 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.91 million tons, a decrease of 569%。
U.S. wheat *** March 4, U.S. wheat *** is mainly due to fierce export competition in the global wheat market for European wheat***. CBOT soft red winter wheat May delivery closed 13 cents lower at 551 cents bushel; KCBT hard red winter wheat for May delivery closed 11 cents lower at 56925 cents bushel. MGE hard red spring wheat for May delivery closed 4 cents lower at 65550 cents bushel.
Russian wheat exports are sufficient for the eighth week in a row, consulting agency IQAR said that as of March 1, Russia had a March shipping schedule of 12The FOB of 5% protein wheat at Black Sea ports was $203 tonnes, compared to $12 per tonne week-on-week. The main reason is that there is currently sufficient wheat in Russia and Europe, and the export market is highly competitive. Merchants said that Russia and the European Union still have a large number of old wheat stocks, which need to be put on the market before the new crop is launched, and the sluggish demand will cause downward pressure on wheat.
[Oils and oilseeds market].
Last week, the soybean oil inventory of major domestic oil mills fell slightly] The operating rate of domestic oil mills rebounded last week, and terminal enterprises replenished the warehouse in stages, and the delivery increased slightly, and the soybean oil inventory decreased steadily. Monitoring shows that on March 1, the soybean oil inventory of major oil mills in the country was 800,000 tons, down 10,000 tons week-on-week, down 130,000 tons from the stage high on December 15, an increase of 60,000 tons over the same period last year, and an average of 990,000 tons in the past three years.
Since December 2023, domestic soybean oil has entered the destocking stage, but sunflower oil and rapeseed oil have obvious advantages, soybean oil terminal consumption is weak, and inventory removal is slow, and domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to decline steadily in March. In previous years, domestic soybean oil inventories began to rise in the second quarter, shipping schedule monitoring shows that after April, China's imports of Brazilian soybeans will be concentrated in Hong Kong, when the operating rate of oil mills is expected to further rebound, in the general demand, production increase situation, is expected to gradually rebound in the second quarter of domestic soybean oil inventories. Pay attention to the actual arrival of imported soybeans and the start-up of oil mills in the later stage.
This week, the cost of imported soybeans increased in Brazil and decreased in the United States] This week, Brazil's soybean exports *** China's duty-paid cost of importing Brazilian soybeans increased. Monitoring shows that on March 5, the Brazilian soybean April shipping schedule CNF** was 460 US dollars, and the CNF liter discount** was 100 cents bushels higher than the CMOT March contract, and the dutiable price at the port was 3,780 yuan ton (3% import tariff, 9% value-added tax, the same below), up 164 yuan tons week-on-week; On the same day, the April shipment schedule of U.S. Gulf soybeans was US$505 per ton, and the CNF premium was 222 cents bushels higher than that of the CBOT March contract, and the dutiable price at the port was 4,142 yuan, down 36 yuan from the previous week.
This week's imported soybean spot crushing profit fell] Last week, the cost of imported soybeans fell more than that of domestic soybean meal and soybean oil, and the profit of imported soybean crushing rebounded. Monitoring shows that on March 5, the May contract crushing profit of U.S. Gulf soybeans on DCE was -471 yuan ton (3% import tariff, processing cost 100 yuan ton, the same below), up 87 yuan ton week-on-week; According to the basis of soybean meal and soybean oil sold in May (the same below), the spot crushing profit in Shandong was -346 yuan tons, up 21 yuan tons week-on-week. On the same day, the crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans on the May contract of the DCE was -55 yuan ton, down 43 yuan tons week-on-week; The spot crushing profit in Shandong was 22 yuan tons, down 141 yuan tons week-on-week.
Yesterday's CBOT soybean futures *** On March 5, the Chicago ** Stock Exchange (CBOT) soybean futures **, in which the benchmark contract closed 05%。As of **, the soybean futures price **075～6.75 cents, with March futures closing 625 cents at 114075¢ bushel; May futures closed 6 cents lower at 1,149 cents bushels; November futures closed down 2 cents at 114425 cents bushel.
Brazilian Agribusiness Corporation: Brazil's soybean harvest 46% production forecast unchanged] Brazilian Agribusiness Inc. (PAN), a consulting agency, said that the 2023 24 Brazilian soybean harvest progress reached 46% as of March 1, up from 38% a week earlier. The company's 2023 24-year Brazilian soybean production was 1431.8 billion tons, the same as the ** value on January 11, a decrease of 7 from the previous year4%。
Brazil's biodiesel blending rate increase will boost soybean oil demand by 1 million mt] HedgePoint Global Markets said that the increase in biodiesel blending rate will increase Brazil's domestic soybean oil demand by 1 million mt to 9.4 million mt in 2024, which will increase soybean crush by 5.5 million mt. The company expects Brazilian soybean oil exports to be 1.3 million mt in 2024, down from 2.3 million mt in 2023.
Brazil biodiesel in the first half of February*** As Brazil will begin implementing a 14% blending rate on March 1, the plant is focused on signing contracts ahead of schedule to boost biodiesel**. Brazil's National Agency for Oil, Gas and Biofuels (ANP) data shows that in the week ended Feb. 11, Brazil's biodiesel averaged 032% from 4R$1178 rose to 4R$1309 liters, because the spot ** is insufficient.
Yesterday's Malaysian palm oil futures price**] On March 5, the Malaysian Derivatives Exchange (BMD) crude palm oil futures price*** because bad weather in India may lead to a reduction in oilseed production, boosting its edible oil import prospects. As of **, palm oil futures ranged from RM14 to RM51, with the benchmark 2405 contract closing at RM3,989 tonnes, equivalent to RM842US$6 tonne, RM51 or 13%。
Malaysia's minister expects Malaysia's palm oil production to increase slightly by 1 in 20241%] Malaysia's crude palm oil production in 2024 will increase slightly by about 1% compared to last year as labour shortages improve, Malaysia's plantation and commodities minister said. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) expects crude palm oil production to be 18.75 million tonnes in 2024, up 1.0 million tonnes from 18.55 million tonnes in 20231%。
Russian sunflower oil production in 2023 24 is set to set a new record] According to TASS, the analyst agency Prozerno said that Russian sunflower oil production in 2023 24 could reach a record 7.55 million tons, an increase of 13 percent from the previous year5%。Russian sunflower oil exports this season could reach 4.59 million tonnes due to an expected increase in production, up from 401 in 2022-2360,000 tons, an increase of 143%。