The Ukrainian Air Force announced on March 4 that a Su-34 Defender fighter-bomber had been shot down. Allegedly, Ukraine shot down more than a dozen Guards bombers in just two weeks.
As Ukraine's strikes continue unabated, some military observers have pointed out that Russia must reconsider its battlefield strategy. Although the Kremlin has not yet confirmed the number of Su-34s lost recently, the number of Su-34s lost is considered "extraordinary" even by conservative standards.
The Su-34 is considered the best fighter-bomber in Russia. It fires long-range missiles and smart bombs at designated Ukrainian targets. However, the plane has always struggled to escape Western air defense systems, such as Patriot missiles.
As Russia continues to lose fighter jets over Ukraine, observers have questioned the absence of the fifth-generation Su-57 aircraft, which reportedly has the ability to evade air defense radars.
Moscow claims that its Su-57 is the most advanced fighter in its inventory, but has not yet deployed it in the "havoc" of Patriot missiles.
Considering that the Russian Air Force has been striving to achieve air superiority over Ukraine, the absence of fifth-generation Su-57 aircraft is puzzling. Military experts who follow the war in Ukraine closely note that Russia could have deployed ** aircraft capable of bypassing radars and evading enemy air defenses in order to launch an attack and gain (at least) local air superiority.
Russia has deployed Su-57** aircraft in the zone of the so-called "special military operation" to carry out critical combat patrols. According to reports, the aircraft also used long-range missiles to launch standoff attacks from Russian airspace that cannot be reached by Ukrainian surface-to-air missiles.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said in an interview in August that "the plane has already shown itself." However, the plane was never sent on a mission over Ukraine. To date, there have been no confirmed reports of the sighting of Su-57 aircraft in the skies over Ukraine.
The UK Ministry of Defense (MOD) said in an earlier intelligence update"Russia is likely to prioritize avoiding reputational damage, declining export prospects, and any loss that would lead to damage to sensitive technologies. This statement is widely accepted by military observers and war experts around the world.
The Su-57 is a fifth-generation twin-engine multirole fighter that Russia describes as a formidable rival to the Lockheed Martin F-35, a fighter widely used by the United States and its allies in Europe and Asia.
Moscow sees the Su-57 as a **aircraft** designed to detect and destroy air, ground and surface targets using both guided and unguided**. It can also act as a command post for the coordination of "network-oriented operations of mixed aircraft groups."
The Su-57 can be equipped with Kh-59MK2 cruise missiles for striking ground targets and R-77M air-to-air missiles for striking long-range air targets. As revealed at the end of last year by the Russian state-owned enterprise Rostec, the most modern second-stage engine Izdeliye 30 is specially installed on Su-57 fighters.
Some analysts even say that a Russian Su-100 flying 100 kilometers behind the front line in Ukraine could be detected by the AN MPQ-65 search radar of the American Patriot air defense system. In contrast, even the Su-25, operating at a distance of 57 km behind the front line, cannot be detected by American radars.
Vijainder K., military analyst and Indian Air Force veteranIn a previous article in the Eurasian Times, Takur noted that "the Su-57 will detect a radio emission from the AN MPQ-65 before the AN MPQ-65 detects a reflex emission from the Su-65". Even American radars operate in low probability of interception (LPI) mode. ”
As soon as the Su-57 detects a radar launch, the radar coordinates will be transmitted via a safety data link to the Su-31S or Su-35s armed with Kh-34P anti-radiation missiles, which will operate towards the rear of the battle line, out of the detection range of the AN MPQ-65. ”
"Thus, the AN MPQ-65 will be destroyed before the Patriot systems have a chance to launch PAC-57 interceptor missiles at the Su-3. ”
Nevertheless, at the moment there are no Su-57s delivering any air or ground strikes against Ukraine. This gives the impression that the Russian Air Force does not have enough faith in its stealth capabilities and calculates the short- and long-term risks if the aircraft is shot down or seized by an adversary.
For example, the Russian "Dagger" and "Zircon" hypersonic missiles, which were allegedly intercepted and shot down, were considered invincible and indestructible, which made the Russian leadership blush. Observers generally agree that the Kremlin does not want this to happen with its vaunted aircraft, especially since it is considered a challenger to the American F-35 and F-22 aircraft.
Asked why Russia was reluctant to deploy the aircraft, retired brigade captain Johnson Chako told EurAsia Times:
"The Su-57 is the most advanced fighter that Russia has. Is it necessary to use it? Is the target worth the risk with the Su-57? Do you need a sledgehammer to kill flies? **Does not mean that it will not be detected by all radars at all frequencies and modes of operation. The practical use of the SU 57 will reveal its systems and potential. This will be useful for NATO later. The use of any ** system that transmits electromagnetic radiation exposes the characteristics of such radiation, which the enemy can use to disable the system. The use of the Su-57 now may render it ineffective in a larger war with NATO "The United States has consistently refuted Russia's claims about the development of practical ** aircraft. Some Western commentators have pointed to the technical problems that plagued the Su-57, one of which is the inability of Russia to install fuselage panels close enough on the fighter to reduce the radar signature. They often reiterate that this aircraft also does not have the most capable engines.
Some reports also note that the radar cross-section (RCS) of the Su-57 is about 5 square meters, which is 22 times larger than the F-5000 Raptor, which is almost equivalent to the ***F A-18 "Super Hornet" flying without ammunition. It is worth mentioning that the "Super Hornet" is not stealth.
Abhijit Iyer-Mitra, a senior researcher at the Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS), said:
"Russia will not deploy the Su-57 because the aircraft is useless, which is why India withdrew from the program. The fact that the Russians will not deploy the Su-57 means that the overall signal of stealth is not done well, and even radar stealth (which is the most basic form of stealth), which the Su-57 aircraft does not have. There is a circular IRST (infrared search and tracking) in front of the cockpit, there is no frequency-selective glass in the cockpit, the air intake duct leads directly to the engine without any obstruction, the engine exhaust port is completely unshielded, and the extremely poor design is all anti-stealth. ”He further added"The Russians are trying to prevent the inadequacy of the Su-57 from being shown on the battlefield, because the last thing they need is negative publicity about this aircraft on the market. ”The fact that the Su-57 did not appear on the battlefield was also partly due to its limited number. Indian Air Force veteran, director of the Air Force Research Center in New Delhi, former Air Marshal Anil Chopra told EurAsia Times:"The Su-57 is still in the development phase. Information from OSINT (Open Source Intelligence)** shows that they have only 32 Su-57 aircraft, 10 of which have been designated for flight tests. They have only one squadron of Su-57 jets. ”
The first aircraft was delivered in 2019 and is still evolving, so Russia may consider it premature to deploy the aircraft for air strikes against Ukraine. ”
Explaining the possible reasons for the detention of the plane, Chopra said:
"There is a clear air blockade in Ukraine, and it is unlikely that Russia will be able to overcome this problem even in the future, unless it destroys all air defenses on the battlefield, which may not be possible". Air defense systems may be hidden in plain sight, or soldiers carrying MANPADS may be ready to attack Russian jets flying overhead. Russia has stopped exposing its Su-35 to these air defense systems, so it is not an exaggeration to think that this is why it does not use the Su-57. As for the stealth part, it is never foolproof and is not a panacea for any Air Force. Stealth performance can be confirmed only after the deployment of the aircraft. ”
There are reports that in addition to the 22 Su-57s in service, Russia will add 15 new fighters in 2024, which essentially means that the number of fighters available for combat deployment will increase rapidly.
Some Russian military experts believe. Once Russia discovers that there are extremely high-value targets in the Ukrainian defense circle, the Su-57 aircraft may make its debut in Ukraine.
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