DRAM chips are an important part of electronic devices such as computers, smartphones, servers, etc., and they can provide high-speed data storage and access capabilities. In recent years, with the development of cloud computing, big data, artificial intelligence and other technologies, the demand for DRAM chips has been growing, and the market size has also been expanding.
According to the latest statistics from TechInsights, global DRAM chip sales increased by 79% year-on-year to 21$800 million, a record high. In addition, the 13-week moving average** also surged 79% from the same period last year, showing the strong momentum of the DRAM chip market. For the full year of 2024, global DRAM chip sales will grow 46% to $78 billion, surpassing $53.4 billion in 2023. This is based on the analysis of the supply and demand, process, technology and other aspects of DRAM chips.
Supply and demand are booming, **lasting**The popularity of the DRAM chip market is mainly driven by both supply and demand. On the one hand, downstream demand is strong, especially from servers and smartphones. On the other hand, the upstream ** is relatively tight, which is constrained by factors such as process, production capacity, and raw materials.
From the demand side, servers are the largest consumers of DRAM chips, accounting for 34% of the global DRAM chip demand. With the impact of the new crown epidemic, the demand for the Internet, cloud computing, education, remote work and other businesses has surged, driving the growth of server shipments and sales. According to IDC, the global server shipments and sales in 2023 will be 1353., respectively90,000 units and 992$200 million, an increase of 69% and 64%。Server demand is expected to remain high in 2024, especially for high-performance computing (HPC) and hyperscale data centers.
Smartphones are the second largest consumer of DRAM chips, accounting for 39% of the global demand for DRAM chips. In 2023, global smartphone shipments reached 13500 million units, an increase of 57%。In 2024, with the popularization of 5G networks and the price reduction of 5G mobile phones, the replacement demand for smartphones will be further released, and the global smartphone shipments are expected to reach 14500 million units, a year-on-year increase of 74%。At the same time, the memory capacity of smartphones is also increasing, from an average of 61GB increases to an average of 7 in 20245GB, the demand for DRAM chips is also stronger.
In addition to servers and smartphones, other terminal devices, such as PCs, tablets, game consoles, smart cars, and the Internet of Things, also have a stable demand for DRAM chips. Especially in the emerging fields of artificial intelligence, edge computing, virtual reality, augmented reality, etc., there are higher requirements for the performance and capacity of DRAM chips.
From the perspective of **, the ** DRAM chip is mainly controlled by three manufacturers, namely Samsung, Hynix and Micron, which together occupy 94% of the global DRAM chip market. All three vendors are continuously investing in R&D and capacity expansion to improve the process, technology, and capacity of DRAM chips. At present, all three manufacturers have entered the 1znm process, that is, the range of 10-14nm, and it is expected to enter the 1 nm process, that is, the range below 10nm, in 2024. At the same time, all three vendors are also promoting a new generation of DDR5 technology to improve the speed and bandwidth of DRAM chips.
However, there are also some challenges and uncertainties with DRAM chips. On the one hand, with the shrinking of the manufacturing process, the manufacturing difficulty and cost of DRAM chips are also increasing, and the space for technological breakthroughs is also shrinking. On the other hand, the development of DRAM chips has also been affected by factors such as raw materials, equipment, and manpower, especially in the context of the new crown epidemic, the global semiconductor industry chain has seen some tensions and fractures, resulting in insufficient production capacity and delivery delays for some products.
On the whole, the contradiction between supply and demand of DRAM chips will continue in 2024 and will maintain a trend. According to Trendforce, in the first quarter of 2024, the contract price of the world's mainstream DDR4 8GB chips is 3$6, an increase of 259%；It is expected that in the second quarter, the contract price of the chip will be ** to 4$1, a year-on-year increase of 395%。
Technological innovation, fierce competitionThe popularity of the DRAM chip market has also given birth to technological innovation and competition. In terms of processes, technologies, products, etc., manufacturers are constantly introducing new solutions to meet the needs of different fields and scenarios, and increase their market share and competitiveness.
In terms of processes, Samsung, Hynix, and Micron are all accelerating their move to sub-10nm processes to improve the memory density and performance of DRAM chips, reduce costs and power consumption. Samsung has already started mass production of DDR4 and LPDDR5 chips with 1 nm process, and is expected to mass produce DDR5 chips with 1 nm process in the second half of 2024. Hynix has also started mass production of DDR4 chips with 1 nm process, and is expected to mass produce DDR5 chips with 1 nm process in the second half of 2024. Micron plans to start mass production of DDR4 and LPDDR4X chips with 1 nm process in the second quarter of 2024, and is expected to mass produce DDR5 and LPDDR5 chips with 1 nm process in the second half of 2024.
In terms of technology, DDR5 is a new generation standard for DRAM chips, which can provide higher speed and bandwidth, lower power consumption and latency, stronger reliability and scalability. According to JEDEC's specifications, DDR5 can reach a data transmission rate of 3200-6400MTS, which is twice as high as DDR4's 1600-3200MTS. DDR5 can also reach 16-64GB of memory, which is four times higher than DDR4's 4-16GB. DDR5 is mainly used in high-performance computing, cloud computing, artificial intelligence and other fields, while LPDDR5 is a new generation standard for low-power DRAM chips, which is mainly used in mobile devices such as smartphones, tablets, and notebooks to improve their performance and battery life. According to JEDEC's specification, the data transmission rate of LPDDR5 can reach 5500MTS, which is 29% higher than the 4266MT S of LPDDR4X. LPDDR5 also consumes 20% less power than LPDDR4X. At present, Samsung, Hynix and Micron have all begun mass production of LPDDR5 chips and provided them to smartphone manufacturers such as Apple, Huawei, Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo.
In terms of products, various manufacturers are launching products with their own characteristics and advantages for different markets and applications. For example, Samsung has launched high-end products such as HBM2E, HBM-PIM, and LPDDR5 UFS-Hybrid Bo to meet the needs of high-performance computing, artificial intelligence, 5G, and other fields. Hynix has launched diversified products such as HBM2E, DDR5, LPDDR5, DDR4 Mobile DRAM, etc., to cover servers, PCs, smartphones and other markets; Micron has launched innovative products such as HBM2E, DDR5, LPDDR5, and GDDR6X to serve cloud computing, artificial intelligence, gaming, automotive, and other fields.
The market pattern changes and does not changeThe popularity of the DRAM chip market has also caused changes and adjustments in the market structure. In terms of market share, competitiveness, and partnerships, each manufacturer is seeking its own advantages and development.
In terms of market share, Samsung is still the dominant player in the DRAM chip market, accounting for 43% of the global DRAM chip market5% share, but its advantage is gradually being narrowed by Hynix and Micron. Hynix is the second largest manufacturer in the DRAM chip market, accounting for 30% of the global DRAM chip marketWith a 5% share, it is growing at the fastest rate, mainly due to its strong performance in the server and smartphone markets. Micron is the third largest manufacturer in the DRAM chip market, accounting for 20% of the global DRAM chip market, and its growth rate is not slow, mainly due to its advantages in the gaming and automotive markets.
In terms of competitiveness, Samsung, Hynix and Micron are constantly improving their technical level and product strength to cope with market changes and challenges. Relying on its leading advantages in processes, technologies, and products, Samsung maintains its leading position in the DRAM chip market, while also actively expanding into new markets and applications, such as artificial intelligence, 5G, automobiles, etc. With its strong demand in the server and smartphone markets, Hynix has rapidly increased its market share and competitiveness, and is also accelerating its technological progress and product innovation, such as DDR5, LPDDR5, etc. Micron has strengthened its market position and competitiveness by leveraging its advantages in the gaming and automotive markets, while also accelerating its technological transformation and product diversification, such as HBM2E and GDDR6X.
In terms of cooperative relations, Samsung, Hynix and Micron are all establishing and maintaining good cooperative relations with downstream customers and upstream merchants to ensure their own supply and demand balance and market share. Samsung has a deep cooperative relationship with downstream customers such as Apple, Huawei, and NVIDIA, and also has close cooperative relations with upstream companies such as SMIC and TSMC. Hynix has extensive cooperative relations with downstream customers such as Huawei, Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo, and also has stable cooperative relations with upstream companies such as TSMC and UMC. Micron has long-term cooperative relations with downstream customers such as AMD, Intel, and Tesla, and also has good cooperative relations with upstream companies such as TSMC and UMC.
In short, the DRAM chip market will remain hot in 2024, with both supply and demand booming, **continuous**, technological innovation, fierce competition, and unchanged market structure. Each manufacturer is seeking its own development opportunities and challenges to adapt to the changes and needs of the market. The future of the DRAM chip market will be full of variables and possibilities.