Recently, lithium carbonate** has experienced a rare round of violent fluctuations**, which has aroused widespread concern in the market.
On December 13, lithium carbonate ** ended violently rising, except for the LC2401 contract, other contracts were up and down across the board, and the main contract LC2407 had an intraday amplitude of 13%.The 2401 contract soared by 180,000 yuan, the future price fell from 8% to ***1094%, with a sharp decrease in open interest.
This afternoon, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange issued an emergency action to issue regulatory measures, raising the price limit and margin standards. At the same time, Guangfu said that it will seriously investigate and deal with abnormal trading behaviors and illegal trading behaviors.
According to the Chinese reporter of the brokerage, a number of ** companies directly raised the margin standard to 20% today, which is 6% higher than that of the exchange, to avoid excessive speculation and risk of losing positions. Some institutions pointed out that the current trend of lithium carbonate futures has shifted from fundamentals to capital games, and investors should be cautious to participate.
Lithium carbonate tail market violently rose, and multiple contracts rose in a straight line!
At the end of December 13, there was a rare scene of lithium carbonate**, and the shorts suddenly reduced their positions sharply, except for the LC2401 contract, other contracts were up and down across the board. Taking the main contract LC2407 as an example, at around 2:35 p.m., the open interest of this contract was 1930,000 lots, and then with the rapid reduction of the open interest, the futures price rose violently, and the final open interest fell to 1720,000 lots, that is, the position volume dropped by 20,000 lots in more than 20 minutes, and the contract rose in a straight line.
The LC2401 contract, which is about to enter the delivery month, is more volatile. The contract skyrocketed from about 90,000 yuan to 180,000 yuan, the future price fell from 8% to ***1094%, the open interest fell sharply by 6,641 lots, ** reported at 108,550 yuan ton, with an intraday amplitude of nearly 20%.
From the perspective of disk logic, because the market strategy is concentrated in the short position in July, after the superposition of the previous three boards, the bears' mentality is like a bird with a frightened bow, and the effect of shaking the position is quite good. From the perspective of the overall pattern, under the ** of 90,000, the reasons for the bears are mostly open cards, but some of the new arguments of the bulls, including the production capacity is less than expected, and the possible changes in demand and macro have not been traded. SDIC Anxin ** said.
In terms of spot, according to SMM**, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was lowered by 3,000 yuan tons to 1120,000 tons, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was lowered by 3,000 yuan tons to 9850,000 tons. In terms of warehouse receipts, as of December 13, 2023, the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts registered was 710.
Industrial ** said that although the 2401 position on Monday fell sharply, the current position is still 460,000 lots;According to the position calculation of the relevant contracts LC2401, LC2402 and LC2403 in recent months, the market-to-market ratio is still at 6At a very low position of 1%, the willingness to register warehouse receipts is still not strong. Considering that the mainstream of the market is still above 110,000 yuan (the discount is about 15%), it is more likely to repair the basis. Overall, as of now and looking ahead, the potential delivery risk of the bearish camp is still large.
The Broad Futures Institute shot again
It is worth noting that some investors pointed out that the settlement price of LC2401 lithium carbonate today is 96,050 yuan, according to the normal 10% range of the limit, the price limit is 105,650 yuan, and today's price is 108,500 yuan, that is, tomorrow's price limit is lower than today's price, and it takes 2,850 yuan tons to increase the limit.
This afternoon, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange really took urgent action and issued regulatory measures. From the settlement on December 13, 2023, the price limit of lithium carbonate** contract will be adjusted to 13%, and the trading margin standard will be adjusted to 14%.Among them, the trading margin standard of lithium carbonate**LC2401 and LC2402 contracts is adjusted to 15%.
In addition, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange also issued a notice saying that the lithium carbonate market has fluctuated greatly recently, and all member units are requested to do a good job in market risk prevention, effectively strengthen investor education, remind investors to be reasonable, and control risks within the range of affordability. The Exchange will take effective measures to continue to strengthen market supervision, seriously investigate and deal with abnormal trading behaviors and illegal trading behaviors, strengthen the investigation and identification of accounts with actual control relationships, give full play to the joint efforts of five-in-one supervision, severely crack down on market manipulation in accordance with the law, and maintain market order.
According to the reporter's understanding, a number of ** companies today directly raised the margin standard to 20%, which is 6% higher than the exchange, to avoid risks such as liquidation and excessive speculation for investors.
Guoxin** said that from the settlement on December 14, 2023 (Thursday), the trading margin standard for lithium carbonate** contracts will be raised to 22%. Recently, the lithium carbonate market has fluctuated greatly, so investors are requested to participate in transactions in accordance with regulations, prudently and rationally, pay attention to their positions, and reasonably control risks.
The much-talked-about LC2401 lithium carbonate contract has entered the position limit month, and from December 21, 2023, the position limit for individuals and corporate customers who have not applied for hedging positions will be changed to 1,000 lots. At the same time, the exchange's latest margin rate has been increased to 15%, and most of the company's actual margin is above 18%.
IB** said that the current time limit is getting closer and closer, and the margin ratio continues to increase due to the recent sharp fluctuations in the market, and it is expected that those who speculate excessively in the short term will be more likely to have the potential problem of insufficient funds, that is, the probability of passive exit is also correspondingly higher.
The spot market is cold, and some lithium salt plants have returned to a loss-making state
Due to the downward trend of lithium carbonate and the desertion of the spot market, many merchants have suspended shipments, and the market is shrouded in pessimism.
Recently, the asset management network and other institutions went to the lithium capital Yichun to investigate and found that as the ** of lithium carbonate fell into the freezing point beyond expectations, the city of Yichun also seemed to be a little cold. In less than a year, lithium carbonate, the raw material of a sunrise industry, has been discounted by 5% and 5%, and it has been discounted by 5%, and it has never been expected that the bosses engaged in the lithium carbonate industry have basically fallen into the circle.
The bosses said that just last year, there were people everywhere and the trucks couldn't move, and now we see the scene of sparse cars in front of the door. The asset management network said in the research minutes.
Everbright said that from the perspective of the spot market, the market as a whole is deserted. In December, the production side may still slow down due to profits, climate and other factors, especially due to the rapid development, some lithium salt plants returned to a loss-making state, and the output is expected to decline by 5 month-on-month4% to 410,000 tons. However, with the import of lithium resources, there is still an expectation of further increase in spot circulation, suppressing market sentiment and **. On the demand side, the production schedule of cathode materials is expected to remain weak month-on-month, and the purchase of rigid needs to achieve a tight balance between procurement, production and sales, and cathode materials showed varying degrees of decline in December, and the weak expectations were gradually realized.
Recently, the news of the delivery warehouse and warehouse receipts has eased the market's concerns about delivery, there is still pressure on imports and large factories to release goods in December, the characteristics of the off-season are obvious, after the disturbance of funds in the early stage, the first or ** weak in the short term, pay attention to the changes in the supply and demand margin, spot ** and warehouse receipt registration. Everbright ** said.
A number of institutions said that at present, the trend of lithium carbonate futures has shifted from fundamentals to capital games, and investors should participate cautiously. Galaxy ** said that the recent lithium carbonate ** fundamental drive is not obvious, it is still dominated by capital games, and 2401 long and short will leave the market, depending on the level of traders on both sides. It is recommended to remain cautious, and there will be a price limit to reduce positions in the near future.
Xingye ** said that although lithium carbonate ** still fluctuates greatly during the day, from a more stable weekly perspective, its volatility has actually decreased significantly, and the deep-seated reason behind it should be that the pricing influence of fundamental factors is significantly increasing. Further, the guidance of factors such as spot supply and demand, futures and spot price spreads has been strengthened.
*:* Times Author: Xu Xiaoru, Brokerage China.