At this stage, the medium and long-term bottom characteristics of the A** field are obvious, and the current valuation is already at a historical low. Under the favorable policy conditions, the special assessment is expected to continue. Coupled with the month-on-month rebound in January's PMI data, it shows that the economy will still tend to recover in the first half of the year, and the market does not need to be overly pessimistic.
Zonghewen. From multiple dimensions, the medium and long-term bottom characteristics of the A** field at this stage are obvious, and the current valuation is already at a historical low, with a certain allocation value.
Recently, favorable policies have been frequently introduced. On January 22, the executive meeting listened to the report on the operation of the capital market and work considerations, and emphasized that "more effective measures should be taken to stabilize the market and stabilize confidence". The National Standing Committee also stressed the need to enhance the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation, strengthen the innovation and coordination of policy tools, consolidate and enhance the positive trend of economic recovery, and promote the steady and healthy development of the capital market. Since then, multi-sectoral policies have been introduced. For example, the China Securities Regulatory Commission proposed for the first time to build an investor-oriented capital market and completely suspend the lending of restricted shares; The central bank announced a 05 percentage points, reduce the re-lending of agricultural support and small re-loans, and re-discount interest rates of 025 percentage points; The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) will study the inclusion of market value management in the performance appraisal of the person in charge of the enterprise, and apply market-oriented increase and repurchase.
With the support of policies, market confidence is expected to strengthen. Among them, the special valuation is still optimistic. According to the statistics of Donghai**, as of January 29, the median PE and PB quantile levels of 459 central enterprises in Shanghai and Shenzhen were only 2773% and 1571% (since 2010) at low valuations. Among the 878 companies with a cash dividend ratio greater than 50% in 2022, the median of private enterprises is 74%, and the median of central and local state-owned enterprises is 64%.
Huaxi ** also believes that as of now, the market value of central enterprises accounts for about 34% of the total market value of A-shares, playing the role of "ballast" in the A** field. The subsequent market value management is included in the performance appraisal of the person in charge of the central enterprise, which is conducive to guiding the person in charge of the enterprise to pay more attention to the market performance of the listed company controlled by the company, and timely convey confidence, stabilize expectations and improve shareholder returns through the application of market-oriented shareholding increase, repurchase and other means. This also reflects the importance that regulators attach to the stability of the capital market in the context of large fluctuations in the A** market since 2024.
Therefore, in terms of investment strategy, we should pay attention to the three layout ideas of valuation reshaping of central enterprises: continuous and stable dividends, strategic restructuring and the formation of new central enterprises, market-oriented increase and repurchase.
In addition to paying attention to the special valuation of the obvious policy catalyst and the space for institutions to increase their positions, the main line in February can also pay attention to: sectors with the strength to go overseas and the industrial chain with obvious advantages, such as chemicals; Demand is stable, and the profit growth rate of the three major industries continues to be in the relatively high prosperity of public utilities and other related sectors; The development direction of medium and long-term productivity, the bottom of the short-cycle industry, and the cost-effective electronics and other related sectors after the overfall.
The latest major economic data is the January 2024 China Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) released by the National Bureau of Statistics. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 492%, up 02 percentage points, the level of prosperity in the manufacturing industry has rebounded, ending the downward trend for three consecutive months, and the level of prosperity has improved.
Shenwan Hongyuan believes that the impact of the "replenishment" of the service industry and the narrowing of the gap between supply and demand in developed countries is becoming clearer. The January PMI data shows that the economy will still tend to recover in the first half of the year, and the market does not need to be overly pessimistic and focus on the four main lines. First, the replenishment of the service sector will ease the drag on GDP from destocking and support industrial production. Second, the per capita income is under pressure but the urban labor force participation rate is increasing, and residents' service consumption may show a "scattered" characteristic of concentrated holidays. Third, exports may continue to recover month-on-month. Fourth, investment demand will speed up again after the holiday.