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The content is excerpted from "Nongxiao Bee: 2024 China Rice Production and Cost and Benefit Analysis Report", the full text of the report is about 23,000+ words, including 72 charts.
Key takeaways1.From the perspective of domestic production situation, rice, as "China's largest ration crop", has shown a trend of first increasing and then declining planting area since 2010, with the overall area at 4about 500 million mu fluctuated slightly; The trend of yield fluctuation with the planting area fluctuates synchronously, and has remained above 200 million tons in recent years. In 2023, China's rice planting area will be 43,423650,000 acres (about 4.).3.4 billion mu), with a yield of 20,66030,000 tons (about 2.)0.7 billion tons), ranking second among the four major food crops. Due to the limitations of suitable environment and climatic differences, the planting area and yield of rice in China maintain the production structure of "medium rice and one-season late rice, double-season late rice and early rice" all year round.
2.From the perspective of production areas, according to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, among the 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) in the country, except for "Qinghai Province", the remaining 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) are involved in large-scale production of rice, among them, the rice planting area and output of "Heilongjiang Province, Hunan Province, and Jiangxi Province" are all in the top 3 in the country all year round - the total rice planting area of these three regions will reach 16,458 in 2022070,000 mu, with a total output of 7394380,000 tons, accounting for the total proportion of the country's rice planting area and production. 47%。From the perspective of consumption scale, China has a consumption of 15500000 tons (about 1.).5.5 billion tons) ranks first in the world, accounting for about 3002%。From the perspective of scale, China's rice imports are as high as 5 million tons, accounting for nearly 10% of the world's rice imports (about 9.).72%), ranking first in the world; China exports 2.2 million tonnes of rice, accounting for less than 5% of global rice exports (about 4.).16%), ranking 5th in the world, with a net import volume of 2.8 million tons.
3.From the perspective of cost and benefit, in recent years, the total cost per mu and the total output value of rice in China have shown a fluctuating and increasing trend, and the net profit has fluctuated and decreased. In 2022, the total cost of rice per mu in China has increased to 136191 yuan, of which material and service costs accounted for 4734%-In the composition of the total cost per mu in 2022, the top 3 sub-costs are: household labor discount, leasing operation fee, and self-camp discount. The total output value per mu has increased to 133924 yuan; In terms of rice types, in 2022, the average total cost per mu of the main rice types was "japonica rice, medium indica rice, late indica rice, and early indica rice", and the total output value per mu was "japonica rice, medium indica rice, late indica rice, and early indica rice". Compared with the United States, in the past three years, China's "gross output value" and "net profit" per mu of rice have been lower than those of the United States all year round.
ForewordChina is one of the countries with the longest history of rice cultivation and the richest rice genetic resources in the worldMore than 40,000 years of rice cultivation history. From the perspective of future development trends, on the one hand, under the condition of relatively stable consumption, China's rice supply and demand fundamentals remain relatively loose, and as one of the main food crops, the increase in rice is unlikely to be too high and too fast, and the growth potential of rice planting income is not large; On the other hand, with the gradual increase in agricultural materials, leased machinery operating costs, labor costs and land rent, the cost of rice planting has increased significantly, further compressing the profits of rice planting.
Based on the data of China's rice planting area, yield, distribution of production area, market, cost and benefit accumulated in the operation process of Nongxiao bee, this paper analyzes the cost and benefit of rice in China from the aspects of rice production scale, production area distribution, market consumption, planting cost and income, so as to provide reference for the main body and social service organizations engaged in scientific research, breeding, planting, processing, warehousing, packaging, transportation, sales and other activities of the whole rice industry chain.
1.Analysis of domestic forms of production1.1.Production status
More than 60% of China's population takes rice as a staple food, and rice is a veritable "China's largest food ration crop". According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2023, China's rice planting area will be 43,423650,000 acres (about 4.).3.4 billion mu), with a yield of 20,66030,000 tons (about 2.)0.7 billion tons).
Figure 1: Comparison of China's grain area and production breakdown structure in 2023.
Data**: National Bureau of Statistics Mapping: Nong Xiao Bee abeedatacom）
China's rice acreage accounts for about 28 percent of the country's cereal acreage97 percent, accounting for about 24 percent of the country's grain planting area33%；
China's rice production accounts for about 32 percent of the country's cereal production21%, accounting for about 29 percent of the country's grain production71%。
1.2.Production trends
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, due to the adjustment of the national agricultural planting structure, the climate change of the suitable environment, the acceleration of the urbanization process and other comprehensive factors, since 2010, China's rice planting area as a whole has shown a trend of first increasing and then decreasing, with the overall rate of 4about 500 million mu fluctuated slightly;
Figure 2: Trends in rice planting area and yield in China.
Data**: National Bureau of Statistics Mapping: Nong Xiao Bee abeedatacom）
The trend of yield change fluctuates with the planting area, and has remained above 200 million tons in recent years, thanks to the increase in yield, although the national rice planting area has decreased in recent years, the overall rice output still maintains an increasing trend. 2022 In 2023, due to the decline in rice planting area and extreme weather and other comprehensive factors, China's rice output has shown a downward trend year by year for two consecutive years, but the year-on-year decline is slightly smaller than the decline in planting area.
1.3.International**
China imports 5 million tonnes of rice, accounting for nearly 10% of global rice imports (about 9.).72%), ranking first in the world; China exports 2.2 million tonnes of rice, accounting for less than 5% of global rice exports (about 4.).16%), ranking 5th in the world, with a net import volume of 2.8 million tons.
Figure 3: Comparison of import volume and export volume of major rice**-related countries and regions in the world in 2022.
Data: World Organization Database Mapping: Abeedatacom）
2.Cost benefitsCost and benefit is a key indicator to measure the production efficiency of grain farmers. In a market economy, in order to obtain higher production profits, efforts must be made to reduce production costs.
Note: The data in this chapter is the "National Compilation of Agricultural Product Cost and Benefit Data" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission
Early Indica:"Anhui Province, Fujian Province, Hubei Province, Zhejiang Province, Jiangxi Province, Hainan Province, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Guangdong Province, Hunan Province" 9 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government).
Medium Indica:"Jiangsu Province, Shaanxi Province, Henan Province, Hubei Province, Hunan Province, Fujian Province, Sichuan Province, Guizhou Province, Yunnan Province, Jiangxi Province, Anhui Province, Chongqing Municipality, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region" 13 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government).
Late Indica:"Anhui Province, Fujian Province, Zhejiang Province, Jiangxi Province, Hunan Province, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Guangdong Province, Hainan Province, Hubei Province" 9 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government).
Japonica rice:"Anhui Province, Fujian Province, Zhejiang Province, Jiangxi Province, Hunan Province, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Guangdong Province, Hainan Province" 12 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the central government).
Other provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government), as well as Taiwan Province, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and Macao Special Administrative Region are not included for the time being.
2.1.Rice
2.1.1.The total cost per mu fluctuates and increases, and material and service expenses account for nearly 50%.
From 2011 to 2022, the total cost of rice per mu in China increased from 89698 yuan per mu increased to 136191 yuan per mu, an increase of 46493 yuan mu, an increase of about 5183%, with an average annual compound growth rate of about 35%；
Among them, the cost of goods and services ranges from 40934 yuan per mu increased to 64472 yuan mu, accounting for 1 more than 1 percent of the total cost7 percentage points;
Labor costs range from 32796 yuan per mu increased to 45713 yuan mu, accounting for 2 percent of the total cost9 percentage points;
The cost of the land starts from 15968 yuan per mu increased to 26006 yuan mu, the proportion of the total cost increased by 129 percentage points.
Figure 4: The average "total cost" of rice per mu in China and the trend of the main sub-cost changes.
Data**: Compilation of National Agricultural Product Cost and Benefit Data Drawing: Agricultural Bee Abeedatacom）
2.1.2.The total output value per mu fluctuates and increases
According to the data of the National Compilation of Agricultural Product Cost and Benefit Data, the "gross output value" of rice per mu in China showed a fluctuating and increasing trend in 2011 and 2014 due to the comprehensive factors such as the adjustment of the agricultural industrial structure. From 2015 to 2019, the fluctuation decreased due to comprehensive factors such as national policy adjustment and market **, and in 2020, it began to increase for 2 consecutive years due to the impact of market **, and fell slightly in 2022.
Figure 5: Trends in the average "gross output value" of rice per mu in China.
Data**: Compilation of National Agricultural Product Cost and Benefit Data Drawing: Agricultural Bee Abeedatacom）
2.1.3.The fluctuation of net profit per mu decreased
According to the data of the "National Compilation of Agricultural Product Cost and Income Data", from 2011 to 2022, the "net profit" per mu of rice in China fluctuated and decreased with the increase of the total cost per mu, and in 2022, the average "net profit" per mu of rice in China was even more in a state of loss.
Figure 6: Trend of average "net profit" per mu of rice in China.
Data**: Compilation of National Agricultural Product Cost and Benefit Data Drawing: Agricultural Bee Abeedatacom）
2.2.Compared with other crops, the net profit of rice ranks fifth among the seven major grain, cotton and oil crops in China
In 2022, the average net profit per mu of the country's seven major grain, cotton and oil crops will be "peanut, wheat, corn, rape, rice, soybean and cotton". Rice with -2267 yuan ranked fifth, ranking third among the four major food crops of "rice, wheat, corn and soybeans" - only higher than soybeans.
Figure 7: Comparison of net profits of the country's seven major grain, cotton, and oil crops in 2022.
Data**: Compilation of National Agricultural Product Cost and Benefit Data Drawing: Agricultural Bee Abeedatacom）
2.3.Compared with the cost and benefit of the United States, China's "net profit" per mu in the past three years is lower than that of the United States
From the perspective of income level, with the gradual decline of China's "net profit" per mu of rice, from 2020 to 2022, China's "net profit" per mu of rice was lower than the average "net profit" per mu of rice planting in the United States announced by the Economic Center (ERS) of the United States Department of Agriculture, and in 2022, the average "net profit" per mu of rice in China was 383 different from that of the United States76 yuan.
Figure 8: Trend of average "net profit" per mu of rice in China vs. the United States.
Data**: USDA Center for Economics (ERS) Graphic: Abee Abeedatacom）
The content is excerpted from "Nongxiao Bee: 2024 China Rice Production and Cost and Benefit Analysis Report", the full text of the report is about 23,000+ words, including 72 charts.