(1) Overview of the development of the industrial boiler industry
The main products within the industrial boiler industry include:Industrial boiler products, commercial boiler products and including heat storage equipmentand other thermal equipment products. Among them, industrial boiler products have become the main products of the industrial boiler industry due to their high technical content, difficult manufacturing and high safety performance requirements. Sihan "2023-2028 Domestic Industrial Boiler Industry Market Status and Development Strategy Research Report".
Industrial boilers and commercial boilers are widely used in the production of industrial and mining enterprises and various fields of people's daily life, and are realized in the process of various production and living activities of China's national economyHeat energy is efficient, clean and safe to useThe main equipment. The current situation of the industrial boiler industry is as follows:
1) The industrial boiler industry has a huge scale of development
As the energy conversion equipment of thermal energy, the development of boiler is highly correlated with the development level of industrialization and urbanization of a country. The higher the degree of industrialization, the more complete the manufacturing industry, the larger the scale of industrial production, the higher the level of urbanization development, and the more developed the service industry, the higher the demand scale and performance requirements for various types of industrial boilers. As one of the most complete industrial countries in the world and one of the countries with the largest urbanization, China has ranked among the top in the world in terms of the scale of the boiler equipment industry, and is the country that produces and uses the most boilers in the world.
According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, during the period from 2019 to 2022, the output of industrial boilers in China was 39390,000 steaming tons, 43910,000 steaming tons, 38910,000 tons of steaming and 37440,000 steam tons, the overall stable scale of about 390,000 steam tons.
2) The industrial structure has been continuously optimized, and clean energy, low carbon, energy conservation and emission reduction have gradually become the mainstream of application
The process of boiler energy cleaning is accelerating, coal-fired boilers, especially small-capacity coal-fired industrial boilers and coal-water slurry boilers below 35t h, are gradually withdrawing from the market, according to the statistics of the Industrial Boiler Branch of China Electrical Equipment Industry Association, the proportion of coal-fired boiler output has increased from 37 in 201603% dropped sharply to 15 in 202046%, the market share of gas boilers and electric boilers has risen rapidly, and new energy boilers such as electric energy storage boilers have begun to be applied.
The application scope of energy-saving, low-carbon and emission reduction technologies continues to expand, such as high-efficiency, low-nitrogen emission as the leading condensing gas boiler continues to be vigorously developed, and most of the waste heat boilers are developing to high parameters, according to the disclosure of the "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Special Equipment Safety and Energy Conservation", at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, the thermal efficiency of gas boiler products has been improved to more than 92, and more than 20 million inefficient and backward boilers have been eliminated.
3) The industrial concentration continues to increase, and the backward production capacity continues to be cleared
China's industrial boiler industry once showed decentralized and liberalized development, forming more backward boiler production capacity and boiler equipment, while the scale of enterprises is small, and the industry concentration is low. With the vigorous promotion of environmental protection policies such as supply-side reform and "Blue Sky Action Plan", the concentration of China's industrial boiler industry has been continuously improved, and backward boiler equipment such as small coal-fired boilers have been eliminated on both the supply and demand sides.
According to the disclosure of the "14th Five-Year Plan Development Guidance for the Industrial Boiler Industry", as of September 2021, there were 884 enterprises with boiler manufacturing licenses in China, a significant decrease from the total number of more than 1,060 production enterprises at the end of 2016. The scattered development of the industrial boiler industry for many years has created good resources for the industrial mergers and acquisitions, market cultivation and technology accumulation of outstanding domestic enterprises.
4) There is still a gap between it and the international advanced level in some fields
In recent years, China's industrial boiler industry has shown a trend of optimized development, specialization, scale, and technology-based enterprises continue to appear and grow, and some enterprises have a good reputation and technical strength in the industry. In the field of industrial boiler products, in the technical fields of high-efficiency combustion, low nitrogen oxide emissions and other technical fields have formed a situation of competition with international enterprises, but there is still a certain gap between the international advanced level in some fields, which is manifested as: the technical level of some key technologies and components, the low level of automatic control of boiler systems and the matching of systems, the relatively weak degree of industry intensification, the relatively small number of high-end products, and the relatively low degree of serialization of some product varieties.
(2) The development trend of the industrial boiler industry
1) Clean heating energy
During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, China's industrial boiler industry has been optimized to a greater extent according to the product composition: the output of coal-fired boilers has declined sharply, and the gas (oil) boiler has shown a sharp upward trend, according to the disclosure of the "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Industrial Boiler Industry", the output of the gas (oil) boiler has exceeded 80% by 2020, and the electric boiler, biomass boiler, waste heat boiler, waste incineration boiler, etc. have also developed rapidly.
With the proposal of China's "double carbon" goal, the gradual improvement of the industrial green and low-carbon development system and mechanism, the widespread implementation of low-carbon production methods, the proportion of natural gas and electric energy in China's energy consumption structure has increased, and clean energy will further become the mainstream heating energy of boilers and bring about the optimization of the corresponding product structure: the application proportion of natural gas boilers and electric boilers will increase steadily, and biomass boilers will also rise steadily; Electric boilers, molten salt boilers and systems with heat storage functions will account for an increase in the proportion of clean heating in the future due to the economy, safety and convenience brought by the use of low electricity prices and solar energy. Represented by new energy sources such as hydrogen energy and solar energy, new energy boiler products that provide low-carbon energy and renewable energy utilization will continue to improve with the popularization of new energy; Green boiler products using low-carbon energy will become the mainstream of the market in the future.
2) Energy conservation and environmental protection are integrated and systematic, and the product structure is large-scale
Strictly abide by the boiler air pollutant emission standards and meet the requirements of energy saving has become a rigid constraint of the industrial boiler industry, industrial boiler manufacturing enterprises from the boiler body design to the design of process parameters of each part of the heating system, auxiliary equipment accessories configuration should be considered as much as possible to reduce the initial emission of air pollutants without affecting the thermal efficiency, so as to realize the integration and systematization of the boiler system with high cost performance and energy conservation and environmental protection.
In addition, in view of the effectiveness of China's loose coal boiler management and the continuous impact of energy conservation and emission reduction policies, large-capacity industrial boilers account for an upward trend in the product structure due to their relatively higher thermal efficiency, safety balance and other characteristics. According to the disclosure of the "Energy Efficiency Status of National Industrial Boiler Products***2021 Edition" issued by the China Special Inspection Institute.
During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the overall proportion of industrial boilers with a capacity of less than or equal to 1 steam ton dropped to about 20%, but the proportion of total capacity dropped to about 1%; Correspondingly, industrial boilers with a capacity of more than 35 steam tons are showing an upward trend, and although the proportion of the number of units has not yet reached 10% in 2020, the proportion of the total capacity has steadily risen to about 45%.
3) Boiler system automation and intelligence
With the adjustment of China's energy structure, the effect of "coal-to-gas" and "coal-to-electricity" policies and the vigorous promotion of clean energy such as new energy, the rapid growth of natural gas-fired boilers and electric heating boilers has provided conditions for the application and optimization of advanced control technologies such as boiler automation, informatization and the Internet of Things.
With the increasing degree of information integration of boiler system, the control function has changed from a single boiler safety control to an automated energy management and control system integrating boilers, auxiliary parts and heating systems that takes into account supply and demand. From the individual control of a single boiler to the simultaneous control of multiple boilers or multiple boiler room boilers according to the actual load of the user, the operation and exit of multiple boilers or multiple boiler room boilers are controlled at the same time, so as to better meet the heat demand of users and ensure the operation efficiency of the heating system; The small and medium-sized boiler control system is efficiently combined with the building automatic control system and the smart factory control system through mobile Internet and 5G technology. Some of the instrumentation and valve functions of the boiler system are highly integrated and integrated with information technology. With the commercial use of information technology, Internet of Things technology, and AI technology, industrial boilers are moving towards a new stage of automation and intelligent development.
4) The "boiler +" business model is gradually emerging
With the continuous development of energy conservation and environmental protection integration, systematization and boiler automation and intelligence, the business model of industrial boiler manufacturing enterprises has gradually transformed from mechanical manufacturing to system integration overall solution provider, that is, from manufacturing to "manufacturing + service", including: based on the operation energy saving and system energy saving of industrial boiler users, providing users with energy-saving operation and maintenance or contract energy management, establishing a remote operation and maintenance system, and providing users with energy-saving consulting. In the future, the business model of professional services based on refined analysis of energy consumption and the whole life cycle of boilers will become more and more common, and the "boiler +" business model of "product + service" will gradually emerce.
(3) Market development prospects
1) The continuous growth of China's macro economy has brought long-term and stable market demand to the industrial boiler industry
According to the requirements of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the Outline of the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035, by 2035, China's total economic output or per capita income will be doubled compared with 2019. As China continues to implement the modernization goal of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way, China's national economy will continue to grow steadily, and the rigid consumption demand for thermal energy will continue to develop for a long time.
As a kind of thermal energy equipment, industrial boiler is the core equipment for thermal energy utilization in various national economic activities such as industrial and mining, commercial service industry, urban central heating, etc., and has the characteristics of large quantity, wide distribution and large industrial application range. Therefore, the continuous growth of China's macro economy has driven the continuous increase in the heat demand of the entire national economy, which in turn has brought long-term and stable market demand to the industrial boiler industry and promoted the continuous expansion of the market space of the industrial boiler industry.
According to the China Energy Statistical Yearbook, China's industrial terminal heat consumption in 2021 was 17,466730,000 tons of standard coal, with terminal heat consumption of 1,211180,000 tonnes of standard coal; According to the "Ten-Year Outlook for China's Energy Revolution (2021-2030)" released by the Resources and Environmental Policy Research Institute of the Development Research Center, the average annual growth rate of the total final energy demand of the whole society during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is about 35%；This is a conservative calculation.
2) The increasing demand for heating for urban residents promotes the continuous expansion of the industrial boiler industry in the field of heating
There is a lot of room for growth in the energy consumption level of Chinese residents
Compared with developed countries such as the United States and Japan, there is still a certain gap in China's per capita energy consumption level, and there is still a large room for improvement in China's per capita heat consumption level. Therefore, with the continuous improvement of China's residents' living standards, the growth of residential heat demand will promote the continuous growth of demand for heating energy equipment such as industrial boilers. China's residential heating demand is divided into two categories: central heating is mainly in the construction of industrial boilers, thermal power plants and other centralized heat sources in urban residential agglomeration areas, to provide production and living heat to residents in and around the area, and the product demand corresponds to the company's industrial boiler series; Household heating is mainly for users to purchase and install commercial boilers, wall-hung boilers, electric heating films and other small heating equipment for heating, among which the use of commercial boilers for heating is mainly distributed central heating residential quarters, villa townhouses, as well as hotels and shopping malls and other commercial facilities, the product demand corresponds to the company's commercial boiler series.
The continuous improvement of the living standards of Chinese residents has promoted the continuous growth of urban central heating demand, thereby driving the growth of the industrial boiler industry
According to the data of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, during the period from 2020 to 2022, the area of urban central heating and the length of the heating pipe network in China will maintain a rapid growth rate, and the compound growth rate of the urban central heating area, the length of the primary and secondary heating pipe networks will reach65% and 679%, and the area of urban central heating in China has reached 111 in 20222.5 billion square meters; On the other hand, central heating has gradually penetrated from densely populated large cities to small and medium-sized cities such as county towns and even towns, and the compound growth rate of central heating area in counties and organized towns in China has reached 6 from 2020 to 202200% and 661%。
China's central heating demand will continue to develop. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's total urban heating supply in 2022 was 428,339200,000 GJ; According to the "2021 China Heating Industry Research Report" disclosed by the Toubao Research Institute, the compound growth rate of China's heating industry from 2020 to 2025 is 32%；Conservative calculations are based on this compound growth rate and the aforementioned statistics.
3) With the continuous advancement of energy structure transformation, the market size of clean energy boilers continues to grow
Based on the "dual carbon" goal and the requirements of energy conservation and emission reduction, the state has put forward the transformation goal of energy structure. According to the national "14th Five-Year Plan", "Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy (2016-2030)", "14th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development" and other policies, the energy transition goals are: by 2025, the proportion of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption will increase to about 20%, the proportion of electric energy in industrial final energy consumption will reach about 30%, and the proportion of natural gas will reach about 15%, and the new energy demand will mainly rely on clean energy to meet;
Geothermal heating, biomass heating, biomass fuels, solar thermal utilizationand other non-electric utilization scale of more than 60 million tons of standard coal; Between 2021 and 2030, total energy consumption will be limited to 6 billion tons of standard coal. With the implementation of relevant incentive policies and plans, China's energy structure has been promotedClean, low-carbon, electrified, integrated, and multi-energy complementaryand other directions to upgrade and develop. Guided by energy technology innovation, low-carbon and multi-energy integration as the main line, and clean and efficient utilization and coupling substitution of fossil energy, clean energy multi-energy complementarity and large-scale application as the path, China is gradually building a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient new national energy structure system.
With the transformation of energy structure and utilization mode, gas boilers have further become the mainstream of the market, and new industrial boiler products such as electric boilers, hydrogen boilers, thermal energy storage boilers, and multi-energy complementary boiler systems will be gradually industrialized, and with the continuous development of green energy and clean energy utilization technology, the proportion of electric energy and hydrogen energy utilization is expected to be higher and higher. Therefore, to:Gas boilers, electric boilersThe demand for various types of clean energy boilers represented by the company continues to grow, and the details are as follows:
The market demand for gas boilers will grow further
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the proportion of natural gas energy consumption in China in 2020 was only 840%, there is still a lot of room for growth to achieve the goal of 15% by 2025. According to the data disclosed by the Industrial Boiler Branch of China Electrical Equipment Industry Association in the "Guiding Opinions on the Development of the Industrial Boiler Industry in the 14th Five-Year Plan", the total output of gas (oil) boilers in China in 2020 accounted for 5626%；And the total output of industrial boilers in 2020 according to the National Bureau of Statistics was 43910,000 steam tons, from which it can be calculated that the total output of gas (oil) boilers in China in 2020 is 24700,000 steaming tons.
It is assumed that China's total energy consumption in 2025 remains unchanged, and that China's gas (oil) boiler production in 2020 is 24The 700,000 steam tons are all gas boilers, and the production scale of gas boilers needs to reach 44 by 2025 according to the policy goal of achieving 15% of natural gas in energy consumption by 2025120,000 steam tons, an increase of 19410,000 steam tons, i.e. an annual increase of about 3890,000 steaming tons.
Electrification is driving demand growth for electric boilers
Faster electric boilers began to develop rapidly at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan. According to the data disclosed by the Industrial Boiler Branch of the China Electrical Equipment Industry Association in the "Guiding Opinions on the Development of the Industrial Boiler Industry in the 14th Five-Year Plan", the proportion of electric boiler production in industrial boilers has increased from 1 in 201630% to 602%, but it is still in its infancy, with its boiler capacity accounting for only 039%；According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, China's industrial boiler output in 2020 will be 43Based on the calculation of 910,000 steam tons, the output of electric boilers in 2020 is less than 2,000 steam tons.
Assuming that the output of industrial boilers in China in 2025 is 40 compared with the average output during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period940,000 steam tons are flat, and China's industrial boiler industry will reach the target of 30% of the industrial terminal energy consumption in the "Industrial Energy Efficiency Improvement Action Plan" in 2025, according to this conservative calculation, the output of electric boilers will reach 12 in 2025At the level of 280,000 steam tons, the average annual increase is about 2460,000 steaming tons.
There is a large market space for industrial waste heat boilers
The total waste heat resources of various industries in China account for about 15% and 67% of the total energy consumption, and the rate of waste heat can reach 60%, and the waste heat resources that can be used account for about 10% and 40% of the total energy consumption. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2021, the total industrial energy consumption in China's final energy consumption was 337.6 billion tons of standard coal, according to this calculation, the total waste heat resource in 2021 can be calculated as 338~13.5 billion tonnes of standard coal.
According to the "Ten-Year Development of China's Energy Revolution (2021-2030)", the average annual growth rate of the total final energy demand of the whole society during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is about 35%。
The rapid development of renewable energy has promoted the rapid development of new boiler equipment
In the 14th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development, China has set a target for non-electric utilization, which states that by 2025, the scale of non-electric utilization such as solar thermal utilization, geothermal heating, biomass heating, and biomass fuel will reach more than 60 million tons of standard coal. The plan requires the implementation of large-scale renewable energy heating action and rural energy station action, promote renewable energy heat supply in the construction and industrial fields, establish a heating system with synergy and complementarity between renewable energy and traditional energy, and cascade utilization, and build rural energy stations based on biomass boilers and geothermal energy in rural areas with large populations and central heating conditions.
According to the International Energy Agency's Renewable Energy Analysis 2021-2026, China's renewable heat consumption is expected to grow by 14 EJOULE. Based on this calculation, a cumulative production of 5The total capacity demand for renewable energy boilers of 5.6 billion steam tons is about 9,259 per year260,000 steaming tons.
Coal-fired boilers have a large replacement space
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2020, raw coal consumption accounted for 56% of China's energy consumption; The National Energy Administration of the People's Republic of China requires in the "14th Five-Year Plan for Modern Energy System" that the scale of coal energy-saving transformation during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period shall not be less than 3500 million kilowatts, and strive to 2025, the scattered coal in key areas of air pollution prevention and control will be basically cleared, and coal-fired boilers below 35t h will be basically eliminated, and according to the data disclosed at the Boiler Green and Low-Carbon Technology Forum held in September 2022, the stock of coal-fired industrial boilers in China in 2022 will be 8350,000 units with an average boiler capacity of 125 steam tons, from which it is calculated that the stock of coal-fired industrial boilers in China at the end of 2022 is 104380,000 steaming tons.
If the average capacity of coal-fired industrial boilers reaches more than 35 steam tons in 2025, then at least 5370,000 units need to be replaced, corresponding to the period 2023-2025, which is expected to be no less than 67100,000 steam tons of coal-fired industrial boilers need to be replaced with clean energy industrial boilers, with an average annual replacement demand of about 22370,000 steaming tons.
4) Industry standards and specifications continue to improve to promote the continuous update of existing boilers
In June 2019, China reclassified the boiler license level, so that the industry access and practice standards of boiler manufacturing, design, installation services and other enterprises have been further standardized and improved; The standardization of China's boiler industry has also continued, and industry norms such as the Licensing Rules for Special Equipment Production and Filling Units (TSG07-2019), the Boiler Safety Technical Regulations (TSG11-2020), and the Boiler Energy Conservation Technical Supervision Regulations (TSG G0002) have been revised successively; 18 boiler core product standards and related national and industry standards (including 8 national standards and 10 industry standards) such as "Water Tube Boiler (GB T16507)" and "Industrial Boiler Thermal Performance Test Regulations GB T10180" have been revised successively;
Technical Specifications for Green Design Product Evaluation Industrial Boilers (T CEEIA536-2021), Guidelines for the Evaluation of Green Factories for Industrial Boiler Manufacturing Plants (T CEEIA537-2021), and Technical Guidelines for Low Nitrogen Combustion of Gas Boilers (T CEEIA539-2021) have been formulated and released.
The continuous improvement of industry-related standards and specifications not only provides standard support for the business development of industrial boiler enterprises in a timely manner, but also has a positive impact on the industry in terms of industry standard licensing, reducing the burden on enterprises, smoothing market access, and gradually rationalizing the industrial boiler standard system.
With the continuous improvement of industry standards and specifications, a large number of existing industrial boilers have been upgraded due to the expiration of their service life or the improvement of standards. The service life of industrial boilers is generally 15 20 years, and the life of some water and fire tube boilers is only 8 10 years. According to this projection, during the period 2023-2025, the industrial boilers produced in 2003-2010 will face a gradual modernization.